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May I suggest that it may be your attitude about that piece of paper that is holding you back rather than the paper itself?


There's also the option of choosing to not commit to either action. One stays in the status quo without choosing it, but since agency is negatively correlated with regret and no agency was used, the 'choosing not to do something' option probably has a higher chance of being regretted.


Phased rollouts are fairly common in the industry.


Maybe since Amazon is reporting Q3 numbers soon and this will only show up in Q4 numbers?


Watermarks usually have branding to indicate ownership. Two distinct 3D paperclip overlays don't seem like watermarks and JonNYC doesn't use them in all photos he's posted on his thread on Bluesky.

They don't even seem to serve as visual cues.


I have premium. I can confirm this. Whatever your private browsing page shows is what I see. If you're fully private, all that registers is that someone has looked at my profile but nothing identifying, just a bump in profile views.


What part are you disagreeing with? It says the US is being left out of China's expanding visa-free program, not that 10 years ago the USA was on the visa-free list for China


The US was not on a visa-free list for China 10 years ago the last time I applied (at least for a business event). But maybe it isn't on some expanding visa-free list which is something I really haven't paid attention to.


No one said it was on that list.


I'm not sure I see the point. The march to $1T took 10 years with available financial statements.


You made the point for me. That 100bn doubled every 2-3 years. It wasn’t a bubble, but it absolutely looked like one. This will be a bitter lesson too.


My experience has gone the other way than OOP: Anecdotally, I have had VCs ask me to review AI companies to tell them what they do so they can invest. The VC said VCs don't really understand what they're investing in and just want to get in on anything AI due to FOMO.

The company I reviewed didn't seem like a great investment, but I don't even think that matters right now.


To be clear when I said “finance folks” I wasn’t really referring to VCs. I’m talking more family office types that manage big pools of money that you don’t know about. The super wealthy class that has literally has more money than the King but would be horrified if you knew their name. Old money types. They’re well aware of the “dumb VC” vibe that just throws money after hype. The finance folks I’m talking about are the type that eat failed VCs for lunch.


And what is it that you believe about these old money types' knowledge of AI and why is it that you believe it?


I hate to break it to you, but this is besides the point.

The marginal investor is the price setter, you, I and everyone else are just price takers in the market.

If enough marginal investors decide assets are over-valued, you have no choice but to accept it.


In my experience they invariably conflate LLMs with AI and can’t/won’t have the difference explained.

This is the blind spot that will cause many to lose their shirts, and is also why people are wrong about AI being a bubble. LLMs are a bubble within an overall healthy growth market.


LLMs are a bubble on the back of an AI bubble in a market finally surmounting an enormous single-shot energy surfeit


LLMs are the air in the AI bubble.

Machine learning is a perfectly valid and useful field, traditional ML is super useful and can produce very powerful tools. LLMs are fancy word predictors that have no concept of truth.

But LLMs look and feel like they're almost "real" AI, because they talk in words instead of probabilities, and so people who can't discern the distance between and LLM and AGI assume that AGI is right around the corner.

If you believe AGI is right around the corner and skip over the bit where any mass application of AGI to replace workers for cheaper is just slavery but with extra steps, then of course it makes sense to pour money into any AI business.


And energy is the air in the economy at large. The Eliza effect is not the only bias disposing people to believe AGI is right around the corner. There are deeper assumptions many cling to.

I agree about ML.


How was Palantir always AI?


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