Easily project a ~$4.3 trillion market cap in five years for an automaker that's already comically overvalued and has typical auto industry margins and nowhere near enough growth to get there. Fascinating.
Plotting ~$60 billion in earnings and a 70+ PE ratio in five years.
To do that they'll merely need $500b-$600b in sales (a couple trillion in sales across the next five years). And everyone in the developed world has to buy a Tesla within the next five years.
Hilarious. All from the Model 3, which is the only thing they have to carry the entire company to those levels. The Model S and Model X certainly aren't going to move the $633b market cap needle beyond where it's already at, nor will solar (look at what the top solar companies are worth), nor will batteries (look at what the world's largest battery businesses are worth), nor will the big rig (look at what the top big rig segments are worth to other automakers).
The article has some gigantic caveats given the obscene forecast, like this one: "the Cybertruck launch will need to go well" - understatement of the century. The Cybertruck is going to flop, after it initially sells well. Ford and the other traditional truck manufacturers will dominate electric trucks, because they're going to sell their customers the trucks those customers actually want to buy, not impractical gimmicks. Musk already knows it's going to ultimately flop, he has begun preparing the market for that outcome.
If Tesla owned the entire auto market globally in five years, it wouldn't be worth half that $4.3t forecast. That's every car, truck and big rig sold everywhere on earth. Add up the value of all other automakers, now or five years ago, or ten years ago. The fantasy projection dissolves instantly when you shine light on it. It'll be a small miracle if Tesla is able to maintain their present valuation while pushing earnings up to $20b in five years, that will require extraordinary market-conquering continued growth across all product lines. They have to become akin to another Toyota in five years just to do that.
I'll bookmark this ridiculous forecast and we can revisit it in a few years.
