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I think I'm missing something. Each month there are new visitors, some of them convert to regular users. So there is a small amount of regular users. However, those users do not rollover to next month - they just disappear. Even the premium users disappear. This can't be right - some regular users should stick around for next month. They even have a name for it - "churn rate" (percentage of people dropping off each month).




Yes, you're right. That's why I've called the model "simplistic".

It already has lots parameters to deal with and, more important, it consistently underestimates your userbase - which is good while you're planning.

Though, point taken, soon I'll post an updated version.




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