I posted this link because I'd like to remind HN that there are still some interesting things happening in the lower rungs of the mobile phone market.
It's going to be a long time until everyone in the world can afford a dual-core smartphone with a HD display and an unlimited data plan. In the meantime, there are untapped opportunities for app developers who can make the low-end shine.
Tiny displays, traditional keypads and unreliable 2.5G data connections await those app developers who are brave enough to venture into emerging markets... But on the bright side, the market is enormous and there aren't hundreds of extravagantly VC-funded Silicon Valley startups already competing for it.
There is no doubt that feature-phone users vastly outnumber smartphone users. But, how much are they willing to spend on apps?
I live in India, and recently happened to be in a Nokia store. I saw a lower-middle-class family walk into the store, and ask to see the cheapest phone available. It cost only $30 (INR 1500), but the couple still thought hard before buying it. Also, they will probably use the cheapest available Pay-As-You-Go plan, and will probably not use GPRS at all (forget 3G). There are lots of other people, for example students, who have similar financial constraints. I don't believe people of such profile will be willing to spend 0.99 per app as often as iPhone or Android smartphone users.
That being said, there definitely would be some money to be made from among feature phone users. Maybe lower price points ($0.49) will work, or free apps with advertisements.
You described me there, I now own Nokia C1-01, because it was the cheapest I could get. Reason for this is the fact that my phones usually last only 1,5 years and I hate touch-screens. Constantly loosing most of my stored numbers is my biggest problem right now. I'd be willing to pay for some-kind of external backup for my contacts.
How bad is fragmentation in the Nokia dumbphone ecosystem? I do actually think there's a market there, but trying to support 100+ distinct devices sounds nightmarish.
I don't have any association with Nokia (not even a relative working there, and I don't own stock).
My point is one of simple curiosity: everybody thinks that J2ME featurephones are dead, but actually they're silently advancing and seem to have reached an interesting level of functionality that's not necessarily even provided by smartphones. (Examples include proxied web browsers à la Amazon Silk, and integrated in-app purchasing that works through the operator's billing gateway.)
The market of featurephones and apps on them is way bigger than smartphone market what everyone in tech world is talking about. It is way undervalued. But there are some issues:
a) no proper infrastructure/ecosystem so far. Elements like this in-app purchasing help a lot here. Ovi Store in phones is terrible compared to AppStore counterparts, for both developers and endusers etc. Very limited monetization options etc.
b) low-end smartphones are coming to this market, Huawey provides almost as cheap Androids as Nokia nowadays in Africa.
c) fragmentation for developers. Why can't Nokia do one really good cheap phone which fits 90% users. Always they announce 4 marginally different ones, just so different to make developers mad and stick to Android/iOs.
Nokia tried to push this line for ages. Yes, it's potentially a very good idea, but in practice you need the content to appeal to actual users. Low-end users like low-end content (ringtones etc), which is what sells on those platform. Apps are substantially crippled by platform limitations in that space, so they are not enticing enough for a clientèle who privileges flashy stuff.
> Low-end users like low-end content (ringtones etc), which is what sells on those platform.
I can only agree with this partially. Nokia's Ovi store gets the most downloads from India (by far), and the most popular category is games. Just because someone is poor doesn't mean they don't like to have fun. :-)
I've seen some pretty poor people (for example, street-side vendors) play games on their low-end feature phones.
It's going to be a long time until everyone in the world can afford a dual-core smartphone with a HD display and an unlimited data plan. In the meantime, there are untapped opportunities for app developers who can make the low-end shine.
Tiny displays, traditional keypads and unreliable 2.5G data connections await those app developers who are brave enough to venture into emerging markets... But on the bright side, the market is enormous and there aren't hundreds of extravagantly VC-funded Silicon Valley startups already competing for it.