This is the right way to think about it. That said, a 1% infection rate that isn't at all a threat to the species given normal biological processes* will cause us to completely flip our shit. While we wouldn't be wiped out, everybody would be real upset for a long while. Look at COVID.
*Technology has given us things like nukes, so...could be harder to predict these days.
*Technology has given us things like nukes, so...could be harder to predict these days.