While it is worth noting cases of premature optimism, does anyone seriously think a world of innovators can operate without that?
Nikola Tesla might be the grandfather of this unavoidable tendency.
Elon Musk is his modern protege in more than one way.
And we have plenty of people, probably many more, saying "XYZ can never be done!" and being disproved over and over.
Is there a way to repeal the bell curve on predictions? Make no predictions? I don't know what the fuss is about here. :)
My hard prediction for 30 years: Machines will pass human general intelligence by 2040. They will never "match" us as they will exceed our abilities in different areas at wildly different times.
Another less solid prediction: We will be outstripped mentally by machines before we can cheaply replace our human bodies artificially. My perception is that material science and engineering happen at a much slower rate than software.
Nikola Tesla might be the grandfather of this unavoidable tendency.
Elon Musk is his modern protege in more than one way.
And we have plenty of people, probably many more, saying "XYZ can never be done!" and being disproved over and over.
Is there a way to repeal the bell curve on predictions? Make no predictions? I don't know what the fuss is about here. :)
My hard prediction for 30 years: Machines will pass human general intelligence by 2040. They will never "match" us as they will exceed our abilities in different areas at wildly different times.
Another less solid prediction: We will be outstripped mentally by machines before we can cheaply replace our human bodies artificially. My perception is that material science and engineering happen at a much slower rate than software.