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You don't need to guess. The CDC is making daily estimates. As of right now:

* 33% of the US population has had at least one dose (19% are fully vaccinated).

* 42% (25%) of the population over 18.

* 76% (57%) of the population over 65 (who are, not incidentally, by far the most likely to experience mortality):

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

These numbers are rapidly increasing, and on top of the ~100-120M that have been infected in the US already (current CDC estimates are that actual cases are around 4x the number reported [1]). And of course, as I said, it's not as if "herd immunity" is a single number that is the same everywhere in the US.

Nobody claimed that we're there yet, but given all current data, pessimism is unwarranted.

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/geog...




I don't think we disagree about anything you stated in this comment. I disagree with your earlier, unqualified claim:

> > So can we have "herd" immunity when the majority of the able-bodied working-age population and school kids are not protected yet?

> Yes.




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