Yeah, this is the key point. I was shocked when I saw the linked twitter posts from that exchange (having not followed it at all).
Just based on that snapshot my take is even more grim. Taleb surely knows how probability distributions work. The fact that he sneeringly dismissed basic reasoning like that in the political context he did suggests not cluelessness but malice.
One thing we do know is that Taleb is very smart and very good at making money. And right now there's a lot of money to be spent pandering to the dumb nihilistic and pseudo-intellectual wing of the political right; indeed, the same people that D'Souza has been pandering to for decades.
And beyond that, the other reason I attribute malice to Taleb is that he is just such an asshole. D'Souza of course, he's a political hack, but I feel that Taleb could have easily made his points without so obviously willfully misconstruing what Silver actually said, and without the Trump-esque name calling. If he's so smart he should let his ideas state on their own without using the cheap "let's have a Twitter war for views" tactic, which was obviously intentional.
Just based on that snapshot my take is even more grim. Taleb surely knows how probability distributions work. The fact that he sneeringly dismissed basic reasoning like that in the political context he did suggests not cluelessness but malice.
One thing we do know is that Taleb is very smart and very good at making money. And right now there's a lot of money to be spent pandering to the dumb nihilistic and pseudo-intellectual wing of the political right; indeed, the same people that D'Souza has been pandering to for decades.