Lol. I mean sure Apple could be stuck between a US/China tradewar... sure. But the affects on Apple, versus literally any other the business out there, of the trade war are going to be relatively minuscule. There will be thousands of smaller businesses on both sides that are affected and that likely have a much larger aggregate impact than one player-- even if it is Apple.
Apple has money and margins, it would not be wise to underestimate the power of those two things in protecting their business. It'd be better if the NYT wrote a piece about a mid-size ($5m to $75m in revenue, 50-500 employees) businesses that can't lobby or fight back and the affect on them.
>Apple’s primary leverage with the Chinese government is Chinese consumers’ love for Apple products, said Dean Garfield, head of the Information Technology Industry Council, a trade group that represents Apple and other tech companies.
That's not Apple's primary leverage in China. It's the millions of workers they indirectly employ there.
I don’t think the Chinese government cares much about that, there are literally 10s of millions of migrant worker factory jobs like that, and Apple’s assembly business is probably seen negligible to the Chinese government.
But in the other hand the Chinese government really really cares about keeping the middle class happy.
The Chinese government could restrict iPhones, but they'd only be partially successful. Instead, they can make iPhones just a blingy platform on which to run WeChat and extort Apple into giving them user's data. The Chinese government wins.
Looking at comments above, I find it extremely disheartening about how bitter Americans have become. Why are people celebrating the downfall of Apple - the company that comprises 3.94% of S&P 500, and is probably the single biggest holding of 401K retirement accounts. No American benefits if Apple falls.
Some years ago, I read an article or heard an interview with a cognition / psychology / "cultural" expert (my apology, I know longer recall their exact credentials).
That person described how the human mind can be views as a "giant", very powerful comparison engine. We are constantly evaluating our environment, including and especially our social environment, and our standing within it.
If you are "doing as well as other people" -- sort of at the mean -- you are more relaxed. You feel secure, a part of the group with an established and respected place. You have social support (and its economic, defensive, etc. supports).
If you are not doing that well, you become stressed. You are in a vulnerable position.
I don't know whether I should be speaking of "mean" or "average". Nor to what extent media influence our perception of what that is.
But I've never lost hold of that description, from years ago, and it continues to prod my thinking. And I think a lot of people in the U.S. feel more threatened than ever.
Vast GDP is not reassuring, when you're not a part of it. Instead, it becomes threatening. Because you have no influence nor power compared to those people.
And the past some decades have demonstrated, that those people will continue to enrich themselves at your expense.
It may have been illusion more than reality, more often than people want to imagine: But the belief that "anyone can make it" in the U.S. has taken a serious blow, now, as well.
So, people are happy to see "those privileged, job-exporting SOB's" take a hit. Or, put your own particular thinking to the generalized sentiment.
Or, below some of those expressions, perhaps people are just hopeful that if more people are in the same boat, things will improve for them. At least, they won't be so disadvantaged in terms of power and influence.
It's a pretty horrible feeling, being marginalized -- if it's not of your own choice and rationale. As well, feeling under constant, chronic stress; one slip, and you will lose what you have.
Even if China completely banned Apple it would not be Apple's downfall.
And frankly it would be dumb for China to pick too big a fight with Apple(and Foxxcon). There would be retaliation and rerouting.
And I'm sorry, we can't let China be a single point of failure. There's a freemarket saying that goes something like "if you don't let goods cross borders soon armies will"... but what if your goods(IP) is arming the armies across the border... and what if you don't have the capability of sourcing components to create arms for your military from friendly nations?
Whilst I agree that no American benefits if Apple fails, it’s not surprising that Americans no longer celebrate the success of American businesses.
The economy is demonstrably structured so that only a small number benefit, whilst income has been stagnant for generations, and living standards have been declining because of rising healthcare costs.
Bringing down Apple may benefit nobody, but there is no longer any reason for most Americans to care about the success of American businesses since they can’t share in the prosperity.
"Bringing down Apple may benefit nobody, but there is no longer any reason for Americans to care about the success of American businesses since they don’t share in the prosperity."
Precisely. Many Fortune 100 US companies took the vast majority of their tax windfall/oversea cash and bought back the stock. Before you say most Americans own 401K's and have benefited from this - the relative increase in 401K's is dwarfed by the increase in housing prices and general inflation. Most Americans have experience single digit wage growth since the early 1980s, while the cost of pretty much everything has increased by double digits.
Most Americans are worse off today (from an earnings standpoint once you normalize it for inflation and purchasing power) than they were 30 years ago.
I think we're worse off from the standpoint of financial independence and ability to grow wealth, yes. Ability to pay for things like education and health care, yes.
I think the reason this isn't more obvious is that technology has improved so rapidly that for just a few thousand dollars... maybe 5% of the average household's income, we can buy really fantastic technology products compared to previous generations. So these gadgets are helping to partially compensate for the loss of so much real wealth.
Even top-10% software engineers making $300k total compensation are really just achieving what I'd consider "normal slightly-upper middle class financial comfort". Ability to buy a modest home near their work, afford to have children and send them to college, etc.
> Bringing down Apple may benefit nobody, but there is no longer any reason for most Americans to care about the success of American businesses since they can’t share in the prosperity.
Any American can invest in American companies. And even if they do not, they benefit from the taxes the companies pay. (And yes, they do pay their taxes -- they pay a whole lot of taxes.)
Most American’s can’t afford to invest in the stock market to any meaningful degree, and certainly not in any way that would offset the proven wage stagnation that has been going on form decades. Therefore your first point is false and all economic analysis concludes that the share of prosperity for most Americans has been declining.
Apple certainly does pay their fair share of taxes, but this doesn’t do anything to change the economic structure.
Despite the innuendo, that piece doesn’t actually show that.
Apple exists under the same tax regime as every other company and pays what is due. You can certainly argue for increasing taxes on various corporate activities, but to claim that Apple doesn’t pay it’s share is false.
Sure they do, these massive global tax evading tech conglomerates only benefit the most wealthy in America. PS only 32% of Americans have 401ks
If Apple actually paid taxes on the money they made? If they didn't go over to china to pay cheaper labor and avoid enviromental regulations? Maybe you'd have a point. As is, they're just another parasite extracting as much wealth as they can in the name of creating the first quadrillionaire in history.
These are valid points and I don't think this comment merits being down-voted, especially without any replies. Outright calling Apple a parasite might not be particularly tactful, but it's hardly deniable. In fact, even if some of these statements were doubtful or deniable, this comment shouldn't be down-voted. We don't down-vote based on whether or not we like a comment, but on whether or not a comment contributes to a discussion.
To be honest, the person you're responding to either doesn't actually know much about Apple or is being disingenuous. Essentially everything they said about Apple is wrong:
Apple pays taxes. Labor is cheaper in places other than China, but nowhere else has the ecosystem to support integration and assembly of consumer electronics. Apple is one of the few companies that is taking steps to ensure that their entire supply chain treats their workers well. And Apple has been an innovator when it comes to implementing environmentally friendly manufacturing practices and product packaging materials. Oh yeah, and they are making serious efforts to build enough renewable energy to offset their energy needs.
I'll (of course) agree that they benefit wealthy shareholders more than other people, but it seems a stretch to say that they only benefit the wealthy.
They employ lots of people.
They make phones/etc that people like.
They match employees charitable contributions.
Blah blah blah.
Let's thank god Apple is an american company paying a shitload of tax to america so they can support all the handouts you want the american gov't to pay for.
Companies like them are the reason we can borrow $20T at super low interest rates to continue the spend spend spend of the last 30 years while true parasites continue to scream "what can my country do for me" instead of "what can I do for my country".
How is that Apple's problem? They don't write the tax laws, and there were numerous squandered political opportunities to extract real concessions from them, most recently during the December tax giveaway.
> ...Apple - the company that comprises 3.94% of S&P 500, and is probably the single biggest holding of 401K retirement accounts...No American benefits if Apple falls.
This is some combination of Americans Revising History, Cherishing The Past, or Nostalgia.
A large population of Americans picture the American dream as post World War II high growth America, with an unstoppable economy, GM + Ford as the American Made Automobile, the Suburbs as the best place to live, coal and hydroelectric power, and being a World Leader with a clearly defined mission and enemy.
So, in essence, things that are not part of that image are new and "liberal" and ruining America. Whether that's Apple, solar panels, or innovative companies like Tesla.
This is a good insight. I'd tweak it slightly, and say that people are looking for an unsophisticated win that doesn't feel like a shell game.
What would settle this is if Tesla were to "pull it off", then we could see if it's blind nostalgia for what you mention, or a preference for simple and obvious utility and productivity.
Detroit churning out cars that move and employ Americans is a simpler win to process than the perpetually-almost-here future Musk may or may not be selling.
I think it's a much tougher problem. There is an unbridgeable cultural gap between groups on what "progress" even means.
I bought a Model 3 and it is incredible. It is the only new car I've brought because I've never been excited enough about a car to take the depreciation hit. Driving this case makes me feel like I'm living in the future where everything makes sense and it makes me happy. But that's just me.
A lot of other people look at this car and see a dystopian nightmare of oppressive degradation and downfall. It makes them feel anxious, resentful and emasculated. For some, it is even a threat to their livelihoods.
So, same object, two opposing views. A utopia for some, a dystopia for others. In the old days there were a broad societal agreement on what "progress" was. Not so anymore.
I hope society once again agrees on what progress means some day, but I don't know if it will happen, nor how.
Or if could just be that it’s a fact that the success of these businesses isn’t resulting in shared increases in prosperity, and that things that were attainable for more people in the past such as healthcare and housing are increasingly unaffordable.
You don’t need ‘nostalgia’ or whatever other descriptor will make people seem backward when you have the basic facts.
> it’s a fact that the success of these businesses isn’t resulting in shared increases in prosperity
While, Ford substantially differentiated himself by realizing the pros of benefits for workers, the company existed in some dark times (WWI, Depression) where there would have been certain FUD. Moreso, Ford espouses its realization that it is at least part responsible for the suburbanization and ruin of Detroit.
My hot take is that ~50 years of wage stagnation makes a country bitter. Especially when you see how well it correlates with international trade being liberalized. The people have a reason to be pissed. I'm in favor of free trade, but no politician or economist has come up with a good plan to deal with how the wealth is currently being distributed. We need better ideas, because all normal politically feasible tools haven't seemed to work. Though I wouldn't say America has tried very hard at addressing it.
You know what, screw globalism. All it does is let capital flow where people can't so unless your capital purchasing power exceeds your future labor output, you're going to lose out to foreign labor.
I am asking this sincerely, not sarcastically: who cares? Did he make specific dates/times with his predictions? Did he address the specifics of Apple's situation right now?
If you are studying the art of making a prophecy, leave it open ended and unspecific. It won't be falsifiable, and people will fill in the blanks with their preferred details.
And it doesn't help us with why some people are irrationally rooting against their own self-interest (Apple's contribution to the GDP, high representation in overall national savings), or why we are starting a trade war against the opinion of almost all experts (or what the motivations of the person starting this trade war are).
edit: and I should note, le plus ca change... "noblesse oblige" is an old phrase.
One thing different is he seemed to be kind of promoting a view of the world, that everyone should try to be some kind of rich asshole and keep other people down to help himself. We don't need laws, other than courts, cause we'll just sue people to protect our rights. But that doesn't really work, only rich people cna afford to do that. all us regular folks have to sign employment agreements forcing us to non-judicial means to settle lawsuits.
I would think (hope) that it's a vocal minority. If you have mixed or no feelings about a company there's no reason to say anything, you only say something if you have very positive feelings or very negative feelings, and in the current day positive isn't cool, so the default is negative.
It's not only America. Every time I talk with my parents they keep discussing how SpaceX and Tesla are huge scam or how EU will crush and burn, etc, etc.
Well, it's getting made great again. In fact, it's almost halfway through the project of getting made great, ergo, it must be pretty good. By 2020 there'll be nothing left to do but to keep it great. Again.
+1 for making me laugh. On the other hand, I'm incredibly impressed by how he's handled the new peace with North Korea. I hope the work that's been happening there continues.
I wonder if this is a symptom of the times, and based on the current living situation for a majority of Americans and how it alters our outlook on the present and future...
It's easier to see undelivered promises right now in America than it is to see promised changed and progress.
How long are we going to watch the economic elite be mystified as inequality skyrockets and the American people become more and more disenfranchised from the "success" of "American" firms like Facebook, Google, and Apple.
And yeah, a billionaire like Elon Musk who inherited his money from an apartheid state trying to "disrupt" the auto industry is not going to be taken to kindly, especially by anyone who's paying attention.
As an average American, why should I care about the "Economy" of the incredibly high earners/highly valuable? Doesn't Apple have like a Trillion dollars sitting in the bank? I feel confident they could whether most things, at least until the bottom falls out and the average American can't afford an iPhone even with Telco monthly pay plans.
Production and value of the American machine has skyrocketed, but nobody I know has seen a proportional increase in income or value. Trickle-down has so MASSIVELY failed. We can't afford to root for the game, because we can't afford to PLAY the game.
When someone who basically swims in money says "But this will hurt the economy", what they really mean is "This will hurt a small section of some budget for me somewhere that you don't even benefit from, and even then, I'll just pass on the costs to you the consumer anyway"
It just feels unfair to the person who actually works for their money, instead of playing gambling games with investments.
If only Elon Musk was the entirety of the Musk family you might have a point
I don't think Elon Musk is a monster compared to his father, it's not even close really. But he is building his fortune on the back of inherited money earned doing some really scummy and shady shit.
Well, that's your opinion (also happens to be my opinion) but is certainly not other people's.
It was a very popular idea amongst the far-left during the campaign and immediately after. Glenn Greenwald managed to write a 3000+ word treatise on the causes of the Brexit vote without once mentioning "immigration". I thought was quite the work of idealogical contortion and purity, but I don't think it's aged well at all. Plenty of people still seem to subscribe to these ideas though.
> Why are people celebrating the downfall of Apple
Because Apple is a tax dodging corporate behemoth that kowtows to the chinese and exploits slave labor? Because Apple sells overpriced garbage to people who don't know better?
> the company that comprises 3.94% of S&P 500, and is probably the single biggest holding of 401K retirement accounts.
You are really overstating AAPL significance in ordinary people's retirement portfolio. Most americans have an insignificant 401k account. I think I read that the median 401k value last year was $26K. Of that appl represents almost nothing for most investors/retirees.
> No American benefits if Apple falls.
What? Americans/american companies competing with Apple benefits. To say no american benefits isn't true. Hell Exxon's future has more impact on americans' lives. Doesn't mean we can't criticize it or support clean energy.
What benefits Apple doesn't benefit all americans. God forbid Apple lose some revenue to stop China from stealing billions of IP from other American companies. In the best case scenario China will obey international trade laws, Apple won't be affected and the IP theft will stop.
Perhaps it's bad if Apple fails but not for the reasons you list. Your comment is the epitome of 'too big to fail.' What, once a company gets big enough to get in some 401k accounts we're obligated to keep it going? I reject that.
Apple is largely a widget company which produces expensive but nice technological baubles. If it fails we'll be fine.
The article goes to great length to highlight Apple having lobbyists in Beijing. A fair question is why?
Are they so afraid to send the message that they are powerless, and have zero control over them being or not being the next company to suffer Beijing's banhammer?
I do remember, back in iPhone 5 days. It took only a single minor customs official to hold their entire initial shipment of few millions units hostage.
Back then, it was said their entire legal team was sent to hold watch by the door of the bonded customs zone administrative building.
Oh I'm sure they can lobby/pay their way so they'll be exempt from tariffs and will get even greater advantage over competition with less cash on hand.
Apple is really the last corpo we should be worrying about.
You didn't read the article? They already have assurances from the US that we won't add tariffs?
"The Trump administration has told Mr. Cook that it would not place tariffs on iPhones, which are assembled in China, according to a person familiar with the talks who declined to speak on the record for fear of upsetting negotiations. But Apple is worried China will retaliate in ways that hamstring its business, according to three people close to Apple who declined to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly."
Apple could single handedly bring the electronics industry back from the grave in North America. Maybe they should, instead of whining that their easy profits off of communist party handshake deals will vanish.
> In the theatre or in a musical performance, a performer's cue is something another performer says or does that is a signal for them to begin speaking, playing, or doing something.
Apple has money and margins, it would not be wise to underestimate the power of those two things in protecting their business. It'd be better if the NYT wrote a piece about a mid-size ($5m to $75m in revenue, 50-500 employees) businesses that can't lobby or fight back and the affect on them.
/shrug