My impression was that the most likely scenario was China blockading Taiwan until forcing a surrender. In that case, the US and its allies would have time to respond although may be busy doing other things (eg responding to ships near Australia/NZ or Japan)
Your situations seem possible but don't really cover any of the nuance of the real situation (see what China has been doing to the Philippines in the south china sea)
A multiyear conflict with China would be difficult for the US. The manufacturing capacity and proximity would make a large category of aid difficult/impossible/useless. (Allies like SK or Japan could be more helpful in this situation)
Idk it seems fairly normal to have a hobby (eg photography, 3d printing, espresso) where you are able to spend thousands. The main issue is that I'm not sure it's easy to get into pressing vinyl - what's the starter kit price?
But as a response to the parent saying "LLMs will be great at ts/js slop but not for infra" it's quite reasonable to say: here's an example of someone applying it to backend optimizations today.
Fwiw, there are always many attempts at optimizing code (assembly etc). This is good! Great to try new techniques. However, you get what you constrain. So I've seen optimized code that drops checks that the compiler authors say are required in the standard. So, if you don't explicitly tell your optimizer "this is a case I care about, this is the desired output" it will ignore that case.
Did we find a faster implementation than the compiler creates? Well, I mean, sure, if you don't know why the compiler is doing what is doing
Eh Google had pretty good reasons to not operate in China (not seeing them in this thread, don't recall the details precisely enough to relate here)
Apple is deeply embedded in China (manufacturing) and benefits from a decent (but shrinking) userbase in the country. China isn't asking for the keys to all iphone user data, just data stored in China.
4o is going to be better for a straight up factual question
(But eg I asked it about something Martin Short / John Mulaney said on SNL and it needed 2 prompts to get the correct answer..... the first answer wasn't making anything up it was just reasonably misinterpreting something)
It also has web search which will be more accurate if the pages it reads are good (it uses bing search, so if possible provide your own links and forcibly enable web search)
Similarly the latest Anthropic Claude Sonnet model (it's the new Sonnet 3.5 as of ~Oct) is very good.
The idea behind o3 mini is that it only knows as much as 4o mini (the names suck, we know) but it will be able to consider its initial response and edit it if it doesn't meet the original prompt's criteria
I'm pleasantly surprised by the quality. Like you, I haven't tried the others, but I have heard tips about what questions they excel at (product research, "what is the process for x" where x can be publish a book or productionize some other thing) and the initial result was high quality with tables and the links were also high quality.
Might have just gotten lucky, but as they say "this is the worst it will ever be"^
^ this is true and false. True in the sense that the technology will keep getting better, false in the sense that users might create websites that take advantage of the tools or that the creators might start injecting organic ads into the results
One of the challenges with proposing the rewrite of a complex codebase is that it requires the person planning and executing the rewrite to understand the requirements and the source of complexity.
I used to think that there existed some queries that would benefit just from being rewritten from first principles. And then someone rewrote them incredibly naively. That is no better than the original!
Your situations seem possible but don't really cover any of the nuance of the real situation (see what China has been doing to the Philippines in the south china sea)
A multiyear conflict with China would be difficult for the US. The manufacturing capacity and proximity would make a large category of aid difficult/impossible/useless. (Allies like SK or Japan could be more helpful in this situation)
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