I think we can assume even if it is any voting power, it’s far less than 14%. No startup growing like that would give up shares with the same voting rights as the founders
There is no American hegemony in this current day and age. Probably dead like 15 years ago.
Say what you well regarding Trump, he understands this.
Trump is a smart man to spot problems, but he surely didn't know how to do it in a way that doesn't lead to self harm. He crazes for a bombastic firework that demands for all and any attention.
The US version of capitalistic economy has driven its internal inequality to the point the political system can no longer sustain it, while in the meantime, doesn't have an established social safe net, as major European countries have. So the populace elected Trump to root it up.
It is absurd, it is ridiculous, but deep down it is logical. Weird and dangerous time ahead.
If he isn't a smart man, he can't be US president TWICE. Or being book smart is irrelevant. He didn't talk the way the political class prefers for sure, but it doesn't matter.
I judge things by outcomes, even Trump doesn't lack any credentials.
> If he isn't a smart man, he can't be US president TWICE.
or, maybe those who voted for him are dumber than him!!
Getting a job, aka campaigning in elections, is very different from knowing how to do the job! During the 2024 campaign, he told everyone whatever they wanted to hear—cheap prices on day 1, a reduction in inflation, home loans, and the end of wars. He fooled and lied to everyone. Burnt by high prices, people trusted him. Sure, he could be called "smart" to con the voters, but still too DUMB to understand how the government works especially in the US. Every day, he picks a new fight with someone :-)
I’ve seen too much inaccurate info from AI to have any trust in it. From declaring the Eiffel Tower the world’s largest Ferris wheel to claiming that hippos can be trained to perform complex medical procedures, it all seems a hot mess.
You might say, yeah, but I can spot those mistakes, but can you really? I showed my fifth-grade son the result of asking if hippos were intelligent and the absurdity of the answer didn’t leap out at him. Now, consider something that’s more subtly wrong like an invented precedent in an AI-generated legal brief or a non-existent citation or citation that doesn’t support the claim and it’s all a disaster.
If you connect ChatGPT to a traditional search engine, it will suffer much less such issues. It essentially digests 100 webpages for you, then render it in a single answer.
For sure, hallucinations will always be there, but I don't think it will hinder its take over, the usage trumps its shortcomings
Yesterday I tried asking ChatGPT "Can an Amazon L6 software engineer afford a house in [location]", without explicitly using the search mode. It went to levels.fyi to look up salary and redfin to look up housing price (exactly how I would have done it myself), and gave me a reasonable answer that agrees with my own analysis, and is definitely much faster than clicking things around myself.
I used to think that the multidirectional aspect of GPT would be a killer feature. But really it's too flaky which remove the initial alleged value. And then results are too artificial or wildly too "imaginary", even asking to compile a list of books on a medical topic you'd get half false titles. Sadly.
Their AI strategy is just baffling. It lacks direction and vision.
They have a thinking model way back ago, which is pretty good with clean CoT and good performance close to R1. But it never gets any marketing whatever.
Veo2 has really good performance too, yet it is so slow in its rollout now Chinese competitors are getting all attentions because it is just easier to access.
It feels to me that Google is reliving its experience with messengers where you they have multiple competing roadmaps from different parties. The execution is disoriented and slow.
They will have to catch up in 2025, the fact grok is this good in one year is a wake up call to everyone, especially Google.
If they failed to do so, Gemini is going nowhere, it already has no tractions outside of Google, nobody’s first instinct when it comes to AI is Gemini
The Transformer LLM came from Google's NLP research and input method(phone keyboard) development. Prompt processing and next word prediction is exactly what CJK keyboard software always did for past 30+ years, only datacenter sized now.
Doesn't ring a bell that very few, if any, of "AGI achieved" people seem to have backgrounds with or exposures to either classical NLP, or Google, and/or cultures that make heavy use of IME? To me the situation looked like that Googlers "have seen that trick" previously, and are doing bare minimum to defend the company from losing presence in this AGI hype storm.
I think its 2 things, but Google is big and slow but also they do not need to monetize the models like OAI. If they believe models get commoditized (Meta's plan), heavy investment is wasteful. AI summaries keeping Search strong and people using the Google bar instead of chatgpt is probably their priority.
They have Gemini and rolled out AI in Workspace and I believe they still have the most capability million token model
I don’t think it is do not need to, it is mainly they can’t at this moment. None of their LLMs are better than competitors, then it is not monetizable.
ChatGPT is already top 5 websites people visit, it is behind Google, but it will eat into its business very soon. That will happen regardless.
> Their AI strategy is just baffling. It lacks direction and vision
It's an artifact of their size -- no large corporation has vision or direction. Best they can aspire to is "stay the course". It's just something that inevitably happens as companies grow and age.
Or China will come around one way or another. It is not like US did all the hard work.
Let me put it another way, even if China is a democracy, it will still compete with US in world economy. So many people there need work, the price will be low to produce things there.
Blame US's manufacturing woe fully on China isn't logical, Japan/South Korea are of the same breed, just lesser on China's scale.
Another arguably more important factor is the over regulation and bloated governance here, to a degree of being comical, just look at the California government.
Is this drawn out, lengthy democratic process really for anything of substance or just performative virtual signaling that essentially benefits no one in the name of benefiting everyone?
Anti manufacturing is a choice, made the government, thus by the populace themselves. And please, do not bring Trump, California has been in a Dem super majority since 2012.
On the other hand, keeping all eggs in one basket, which is Google, in this case, is unlikely to make it more competent against oversea competition anyway.
reply