Both. Counterfeiting, or substituting recycled parts, can be for economic reasons, or can be a hostile government that managed to substitute its hardware into the supply chain, for sabotage or to create backdoors.
I wish these things would let you change the confidence interval. 95% is really only used in an academic context. If you think about decisions that you make in a typical business context, you are not using more than 80% or so
To take your idea one step further: because it's so costly to get stuff into space, the less we come back with the better. The astronauts can come back, but once they launch a bunch of infrastructure, tools, etc into space those should stay there and remain usable. The ISS is a good example of this concept
There is some risk with early adoption. Reliability will be lower. That's why NASA built the space shuttles uses decades-old computers in its spacecraft. But that doesn't mean it's not the solution to a problem