that is not much of a timeline and not much of a prediction. first you need to define what “crash” means in real terms. over the course of 4 years there will be market correction (especially after a bull run like we are on) so just saying “ai bubble, crash bla bla” is too lazy (although there are probably 10k+ such “predictions” on HN in the last say a year)
If you're looking for a short term prediction, I expect with, let's say 80% confidence, that the OpenAI IPO later this year will be quietly cancelled or face a WeWork moment and be loudly cancelled. Too much of what we think we know about the economics of modern AI is built on trust in people who aren't trustworthy, and the presumption that VCs would check the financials carefully when we know they strap on blinders once they see a revenue graph they like.
My feeling is that some event will happen close-to-IPO that spooks investors, that results in OAI not IPO'ing. Remember if there are under-writers involved they will not want to go forward.
Then they will face financial distress, and questions over how they get the funding to continue as a going-concern. The only way that'll happen is via issues of shares at a lower price aka destroying the valuation of OAI compared with today.
Anthropic in comparison will be OK, as they have focused on building a viable business enterprise.
writing any git command, ever, writing any documentation, ever. writing comments in issue trackers, resolving issues in issue trackers, doing pretty much anything in the terminal, ever… basically every imaginable thing which takes time away from the actual job
Why not say “using a computer”. gcl (my alias for git clone) is way faster to use than any prompting. Any use case I found for LLMs, I noticed that a good script or a DSL (as an abstraction) would be way more useful.
A lot. I often study software I use (mostly OSS) to find how a feature is implemented.
If something is cumbersome and I find myself needing it often (or I think I will need it), I write an alias, a script, an emacs function, etc,... That's the magic of reducing lot of steps to a single button press (or a short command).
Ask the interviewer to call you on mobile phone and ensure they are not on speaker phone. I’ve had several candidates simply hang up and never call back - pretty funny (and sad too)
get on Teams for an interview, start with introductions, things are going well. Ask first technical question the candidate is obviously looking slightly up reading answers from a monitor which is above the main laptop/monitor connected to Teams. I’ve the same where candidate is looking slightly to left or right, wherever the 2nd computer / monitor is from where answers are being read.
Ask them to call me on my cell, basically to eliminate anything hearing and questions and feeding answers. Had one candidate call and put me on a speaker. Had 6 never calling back :)
That has probably more to do with you bank account digits.
I'm on the inverse moral ladder currently, specially as more and more services are privatized (public health here is on fast-track to be americanized).
I see so many rich people act in awfull manner just to get mote money ... so no.
People who make ethical decisions end up with less money on average. But that is it, poor people and low paid people and average paid techies make ethical decisions all the time.
It really did not have anything to do with money. Obviously I make more money now than in my “junior” days. I just did not give a F.
I worked for Monsanto, I mean as evil of a company as you’d find (during that time, nothing compared to today’s Big Tech evil). I just honestly did not give a F at all.
I'm glad you got better (I don't think this is said often enough. People change, and I'm glad you changed in this direction rather than the other). If you write about your path I'd read it.
I guess that's why I'm always angry when I'm reading comments here
I know I don't have all the answers, but I minored in philosophy in school. I studied ethics quite a lot and being ethical has always been very important to me
I never had 20 years of "let's burn down everything in my way as long as it pays well"
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