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Author here: Elo is commonly used and most gamers understand it. It's nice to be able to show each player their Elo.

I love the idea to use per-player embedding and to add a nonlinear model on top. I think it may improve the model dramatically, but I'm afraid that the model may be overfitting strongly as we have only 35 games in the historical for now. Anyway - I think I'll try this out.


Yeah, 35 games is hard to work with. My rule of thumb is to not go above 1 parameter per 10 data points in order to prevent overfitting and memorization, so I'm not sure how well it will work in your case.


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