So you do make a valid point, but I think your estimation of the impact is vastly overrated, too.
Number of users who will pay for Apple Music with no trial or a 1 month trial (as per Spotify, Rdio, et al) = x,
Number of users who would not pay for Apple Music with no trial but will after a 3 month free trial = 2x?
Doubtful. I think the order of magnitude in people for whom the three month trial is in the order of single digit percentages, at most (because I'm sure other music services have A/B tested this). "1 month vs 3 month trial" is not revolutionary nor out of left field, and I can guarantee if the there was a 100% increase in customer base by Spotify offering a three month trial, they would be doing that right now.
Number of users who will pay for Apple Music with no trial or a 1 month trial (as per Spotify, Rdio, et al) = x,
Number of users who would not pay for Apple Music with no trial but will after a 3 month free trial = 2x?
Doubtful. I think the order of magnitude in people for whom the three month trial is in the order of single digit percentages, at most (because I'm sure other music services have A/B tested this). "1 month vs 3 month trial" is not revolutionary nor out of left field, and I can guarantee if the there was a 100% increase in customer base by Spotify offering a three month trial, they would be doing that right now.