Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login


We'll never be rid of it. Like copyright law, It's crystallized into a self-perpetuating incentive structure. Everyone knows it's stupid, no individual has much incentive to try and change things. The ability to restore to a previous state is essential in the design of institutions, one lacking in our current governments. This is a very hard problem, but I'm hopeful prediction markets may be able to help with this in future governmental structures.

Yeah, but prediction markets are basically illegal, because---again---government regulation.

Prediction markets are so vastly powerful, both as a financial tool (hedging) and an information tool, that people would be screaming bloody murder if we already had them and then they were taken away.

They are illegal - because it is impossible to limit the participants to just betting on the outcome instead of trying actively to get the outcome. Imagine for example a prediction market for Obama dying this year - if the price is big enough it would become an assassination market.

Nick Szabo explains it in: http://unenumerated.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/small-game-fallac...

Prediction markets are being decentralized. They will be uncensorable.


I hope so. I am a big fan of bitcoin and I see it as the way to do prediction markets.

The problem is, people won't be able to use it seriously (i.e. with non-trivial amounts of money), because once you convert your earnings into fiat money, it goes into a bank, so you have to pay taxes on it, and you can't put something illegal on your taxes (well, maybe you can, people say "the IRS doesn't care," and I'm no expert, but I doubt it).

I agree, the way American government is now, I don't think there is much hope for the legalization of prediction markets. But new governments are formed from time to time and there are quite a few nations in the world so hopefully someone else legalizes them.

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

Applications are open for YC Winter 2020

Guidelines | FAQ | Support | API | Security | Lists | Bookmarklet | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact