When I wrote this I was more thinking from the perspective of someone who has a large fixed donation and is deciding what to do with it. In that case, they might want to back a matching campaign, but if they're trying to maximize the impact of their donation, they would want to know whether such a campaign would actually draw out more donations.
You make a good point, perhaps their efficacy is more aptly measured on the outcomes of the major donor. However, it's still a commonly held belief in resource development and fundraising that a match is a very strong motivator to give. This is a good start to determining how true that is.
The OPs suggestion of heavily studying your own matching strategy and running different types is good advice (though maybe not 100% practical).
As an aside, I think people don't fully consider the effectiveness of earning more money as a form of altruism. Since around 30% will be taken by the government, and used to fund various social services, the choice to earn more money is really the choice to earn money and donate 30%.
I'm super sympathetic to this idea, but I think generally there are even more effective places to donate extra earnings than the government! For one thing, a lot of government programs aren't very efficient for various political reasons. For another, even the worst-off people in the US are largely better off than the people that you could help by giving to organizations that work abroad. (Personally, I'm a fan of GiveWell's approach to finding the most effective places to give.) But I agree that trying to earn money in order to fund this sort of thing is an under-appreciated idea, and in fact exactly what I'm trying to do :)
If it has more money will it go to war more?
If it has less money will it cut social programs or cut down on military adventurism?
If it has more money will it be directed to special interests since social programs are already funded at a good level -- does more money enable corruption?
I agree with you about earning more money being for altruism; I think it's better to work a week and donate the money than do something you aren't skilled at. e.g. building houses when you can program and pay for 3 skilled builders - more gets done and at a better quality.