Never mind that virtually nobody is "rational" in the game theory sense. As such, people will go for the sure thing even if they have high odds of winning. We are wired to be risk adverse to the extreme.
- Spend $50,000-100,000 on lawyers and legal fees.
- Spend another 1-3 months in jail during the trial stages.
- Get found "innocent."
- Get release only to find that the local TV shows splashed your mugshot all over the TV related to whatever crime you're accused, reputation ruined, you have to move.
So now you're destitute, homeless, jobless, and lost all told two years of your life. But at least you "won" the trial. Big win that...
When I was younger, a local judge came to visit my Boy Scout troop and discuss the justice system. I don't remember what question I asked him, partially because he never answered it. The answer never came because I touched on an incredibly sensitive pet peeve of his - defendants are never found "innocent". They are merely found "not guilty".
He went on to explain that the court can't find you innocent, because no one who goes to court is innocent. You "obviously" had made some mistakes with your life if you were on trial in his court room. His duty was to decide if you deserved to go to prison for those mistakes.
It was a long time ago, so I only remember bits and pieces of the other parts of his lecture. The part where he talked about how things went so much more smoothly and quickly when he could talk to the defendant directly without his lawyer still sticks in my mind.
The presumption of innocence combined with the "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard of proof means that, in a wide variety of criminal cases, the defendant is quite possibly or even very likely guilty but there is still reasonable doubt.
That means that the finding is necessarily something we call "not guilty," as that's the literal finding of the court. We do not find you guilty and this matter is closed. It is not a finding of innocence and so is not reported as such.
Simplistically, compare the difference in the NFL replay system of "the ruling on the field is confirmed" vs "the ruling on the field stands". The latter is the gray area and both are reported as "not guilty" in the criminal system (in the US).
