That would depend on what set of developers we're looking at:
All developers - this will be very bottom-heavy, people [usually] get better with experience and there's obviously a lot less people that have been doing this for 20 years than having been doing it for two. Additionally people who are bad at a profession are more likely to change careers than those that are good (this is by no means an absolute, I wouldn't even go as far to say most bad engineers change professions, I'm just saying they're more likely to - further contributing to higher caliber corresponding well to years of experience).
Developers with similar experience - this is much more useful as there's not much point comparing someone who's been doing something for decades with someone on their first job. I would expect this to be a fairly normal distribution.
Developers interviewing for a particular position - applicants will largely self-select (and the initial screening process would further refine that) so this group will largely have similar experience (i.e. you're typically not interviewing someone with no experience and someone with 25 for the same job). But it won't match the previous distribution because, as someone else commented, the bad ones are looking for work more often (and for a longer period of time). Do the interviewees you wouldn't hire outnumber the ones you would? Yes, definitely. Do they outnumber them by a factor of a hundred to one? Definitely not. Ten to one? Probably not - if they do it probably represents a flawed screening process causing you to interview people you shouldn't (or not interview the people you should) rather than an indication that only one out of every ten developers are worth hiring.
That would depend on what set of developers we're looking at:
All developers - this will be very bottom-heavy, people [usually] get better with experience and there's obviously a lot less people that have been doing this for 20 years than having been doing it for two. Additionally people who are bad at a profession are more likely to change careers than those that are good (this is by no means an absolute, I wouldn't even go as far to say most bad engineers change professions, I'm just saying they're more likely to - further contributing to higher caliber corresponding well to years of experience).
Developers with similar experience - this is much more useful as there's not much point comparing someone who's been doing something for decades with someone on their first job. I would expect this to be a fairly normal distribution.
Developers interviewing for a particular position - applicants will largely self-select (and the initial screening process would further refine that) so this group will largely have similar experience (i.e. you're typically not interviewing someone with no experience and someone with 25 for the same job). But it won't match the previous distribution because, as someone else commented, the bad ones are looking for work more often (and for a longer period of time). Do the interviewees you wouldn't hire outnumber the ones you would? Yes, definitely. Do they outnumber them by a factor of a hundred to one? Definitely not. Ten to one? Probably not - if they do it probably represents a flawed screening process causing you to interview people you shouldn't (or not interview the people you should) rather than an indication that only one out of every ten developers are worth hiring.