That's why I have serious respect for anybody that makes it work more than once, those are the real entrepreneurs. For the rest it really is mostly luck.
I agree with your suspicion that luck is often involved. But twice- or even thrice-successful entrepreneurs might also be lucky as well as good. I think an anecdote about the great physicist Enrico Fermi is in order:
My [Carl Sagan's] favorite example [of the non sequitur fallacy] is this story, told about the Italian physicist Enrico Fermi, newly arrived on American shores, enlisted in the Manhattan nuclear weapons Project, and brought face-to-face in the middle of World War II with U.S. flag officers: So-and-so is a great general, he was told. What is the definition of a great general? Fermi characteristically asked. I guess it's a general who's won many consecutive battles. How many? After some back and forth, they settled on five. What fraction of American generals are great? After some more back and forth, they settled on a few percent. But imagine, Fermi rejoined, that there is no such thing as a great general, that all armies are equally matched, and that winning battles is purely a matter of chance. Then the chance of winning one battle of one out of two, or 1/2; two battles 1/4, three, 1/8, four 1/16, and five consecutive battles 1/32 -- which is about 3 percent. You would expect a few percent of American generals to win five consecutive battles --- purely by chance. Now, has any of them won ten consecutive battles...?
The problem here is not that you can measure 'success' by looking at consecutive endeavours, you can.
The trouble is that it may not be an indicator of future success, in other words it may not be a good 'predictor'.
But it also doesn't mean that there is no qualitative difference between entrepreneurs. It's just very hard to put your finger on what makes the difference, to explain that difference in terms of things to do or not to do.
I agree with your suspicion that luck is often involved. But twice- or even thrice-successful entrepreneurs might also be lucky as well as good. I think an anecdote about the great physicist Enrico Fermi is in order:
My [Carl Sagan's] favorite example [of the non sequitur fallacy] is this story, told about the Italian physicist Enrico Fermi, newly arrived on American shores, enlisted in the Manhattan nuclear weapons Project, and brought face-to-face in the middle of World War II with U.S. flag officers: So-and-so is a great general, he was told. What is the definition of a great general? Fermi characteristically asked. I guess it's a general who's won many consecutive battles. How many? After some back and forth, they settled on five. What fraction of American generals are great? After some more back and forth, they settled on a few percent. But imagine, Fermi rejoined, that there is no such thing as a great general, that all armies are equally matched, and that winning battles is purely a matter of chance. Then the chance of winning one battle of one out of two, or 1/2; two battles 1/4, three, 1/8, four 1/16, and five consecutive battles 1/32 -- which is about 3 percent. You would expect a few percent of American generals to win five consecutive battles --- purely by chance. Now, has any of them won ten consecutive battles...?
(From The Demon-Haunted World by Carl Sagan; http://tinyurl.com/yeprpx4)