I think you are confused. The earthquake and reactor accident happened.
That the reactors are not contained, is not a separate event. It is cleanup that has not yet occurred.
You wouldn't say, "Well, I fell off my bike at 25mph on pavement, landing precisely on both kneecaps, which was highly improbable" and then say "the probability that my knee is bleeding is therefore lessened", would you?
That the reactors are not contained, is not a separate event. It is cleanup that has not yet occurred.
You wouldn't say, "Well, I fell off my bike at 25mph on pavement, landing precisely on both kneecaps, which was highly improbable" and then say "the probability that my knee is bleeding is therefore lessened", would you?