If I know that every codinghorror post gets to front page, I know that if I spot a new coding horror post I should submit to HN to get the karma. In an effort to be first I shouldn't check if it's previously been submitted, I should just submit.
Therefore I will submit. If it turns out I'm not the first I'm just upvoting the article, if it turns out I am first I "win" a lot of karma.
There's no way to differentiate between a genuinely interesting coding horror post that is getting submissions from people because it's a good post (of which there are many) and between a coding horror post that is getting submissions because people expect them to get submissions.
After a while, even low quality sites that are known to have people who post them for this effect can get trapped into this cycle.
This isn't an effect of spammers, it's an effect of a community who know how each other behave.
If you can't differentiate between this and more "genuine" activity then you cannot dis-incentivise the activity you wish to prevent.