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Serious question, since you have the stats: have people replaced 90% of their desktop and laptop usage with other computing devices, or do they now use computing devices generally 10x more than they used to? That is, just because we have smart phones etc, do we really use "computers" less than we used to? I doubt it, since I don't think tablets have replaced computers at work to that degree.

I agree, I think cstross is extrapolating from sales, which (as per recent discussion[1]) is not a reasonable assumption to make.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6606056

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