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Umm..ok. But the point of Black Swan is that certain are unpredictable. Yet plenty of people saw the crisis coming [2,3]. Taleb was not one of them - please see [0]

If you are a Taleb fan (or just curious), check out this critique of his work:

[0] http://quixoticfinance.com/tag/nassim-taleb/

[1] http://unpleasantfacts.com/falken-on-taleb

People who actually predicted the crisis

[2] http://www.amazon.com/Greatest-Trade-Ever-Behind-Scenes/dp/0...

[3] http://www.amazon.com/The-Big-Short-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0393...




At any given moment there are "plenty" of people who think the sky is falling. How do you account for survivor bias.


You know, in billiards (pool) you have to actually point to the hole in which you plan to sink the bal. So that if the ball ends up in some hole (but not the one you anticipated), you don't get credit for it.

Same here - if you read the piece (http://quixoticfinance.com/tag/nassim-taleb/) it exlains in detail how Taleb's claim to predicting the crisis is 100% off the mark (and the said thing is that he knows it, which makes him a poseur).




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