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I strongly doubt that. What we're seeing is all the existing investigations are hurriedly wrapping up and arresting the people they can before everyone cleans up and protect themselves. The NOD investigation began in early 2013 and had nothing to do with the SR bust, the 3 UK arrests seem similar (and the Plutopete arrest suggests that they hadn't done their homework on him), the 2 Swedes went silent a week before the bust, and that's everything I know of right now.

Since I hate cheap talk, I'll even offer you a bet. Because of my interest in the topic, I track all publicly-known SR-related arrests, prosecutions, and convictions in http://www.gwern.net/Silk%20Road#safe . Based on the past history and the circumstances of the currently known arrests, I am strongly skeptical that there will be as many as... oh, let's say 30 related arrests after 1 October 2013 and before 1 October 2014 (Should be more than enough time; this, incidentally, would imply <~1% of active sellers were arrested.)

I'll offer generous odds: $100 to your $20.

So? What do you say? Are you just engaged in cheap talk and FUD, or do you have the conviction of your words? -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: GnuPG v1.4.14 (GNU/Linux)

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http://pastebin.com/raw.php?i=eSkzWm8B because gwern's noprocrast has kicked in.




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