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The messages are not repeated in fanout, just the ids. I guess you would know that if you actually the links.

That still means 30 million writes instead of one. That the size of each write is smaller is not going to help you all that much if each write still worst case ends up forcing you to rewrite at least one disk sector.

While I'm inclined to favour a fanout approach, a "full" fanout can easily be incredibly costly on the write side.

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