2013: 145 YTD
Shooting Incidents YTD 2012: 581, 2013: 423
Shooting victims YTD 2012: 685, 2013: 486
I'm glad to see the city enter a new era of relative peacefulness. Now, I'd like to see the infrastructure upgraded to befit a great modern metropolis.
People generally credit methodology changes under the term 'community policing' for the turn-around. Basically, the idea is that rather than just riding in, cracking skulls, slapping cuffs on once a night, engage with the community more, address more stuff like noise complaints and vandalism, to build relations with the community and coincidentally crack down on the same troublemakers a lot of the time. In theory (and in practice), it turns out to be more effective at stopping crime from happening than the deterrent factor of riding in lights blazing every night.
(This isn't to say that NYC cops are perfect or that stop-and-frisk doesn't happen all the damn time, just outlining the general theory behind community policing)
I don't think larrys was suggesting otherwise, just that it'd be interesting to know if the homicide division was reduced in line with the homicide rate. Similarly, what has happened to the percentage of cases being solved and successfully prosecuted?
> 'community policing' [...] turns out to be more effective at stopping crime
It's known as "policing by consent" by the British, where officers are meant to follow the "Peelian Principles" from 1829 
Of particular relevance here:
2. The ability of the police to perform their duties is dependent upon public approval of police actions.
3. Police must secure the willing co-operation of the public in voluntary observance of the law to be able to secure and maintain the respect of the public.
4. The degree of co-operation of the public that can be secured diminishes proportionately to the necessity of the use of physical force.
9. The test of police efficiency is the absence of crime and disorder, not the visible evidence of police action in dealing with it.
My feeling is that under the "work expands to fill the time available for completion" Parkinson's law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law we would find that the size of that division didn't drop as much as it could (ratio wise) since a detective can always follow more leads. And if those leads led to arrests the labor would be justified. Without regard to whether the extra work was the reason or not.
All this of course assumes also that the staffing level was appropriate to begin with. No way to really know that. After solving crimes in NY Metro is not the same as solving crimes in a different geographic area (travel time or other support resources could be different).
 - http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-li...
> There are reasons to be skeptical of any claim based on correlations between such widely
separated variables as lead exposure (the cause) and crime (the effect). Consuming lead does
not instantly turn someone i
nto a criminal in the way that consuming vitamin C cures scurvy. It
affects the child’s developing brain, which makes the child duller and more impulsive, which, in
some children, and under the right circumstances, leads them to grow up to make short
and risky choices, which, in some children and under the right circumstances, leads them to
commit crimes, which, if enough young people act in the same way and at the same time,
affects the crime rate. The lead hypothesis correlates the first and last
link in this chain, but it
would be more convincing if there were evidence about the intervening links.
source - http://stevenpinker.com/files/pinker/files/pinker_comments_o...
Or the non-effect of them.
Crime rates have dropped drastically across the board, across the
country, in many places that didn't make their policing policies more
fascist as NYC's government chose to.
From the MJ article:
Second, and far more puzzling, it's not just New York that has
seen a big drop in crime. In city after city, violent crime peaked
in the early '90s and then began a steady and spectacular
decline. Washington, DC, didn't have either Giuliani or Bratton, but
its violent crime rate has dropped 58 percent since its
peak. Dallas' has fallen 70 percent. Newark: 74 percent. Los
Angeles: 78 percent.
There must be more going on here than just a change in policing
tactics in one city.
I wonder how much of it is associated with anti poverty programs.
Call your water authority and ask about lead abatement programs. While you are on the phone with them ask if they can send someone to your house and test the water for lead (some do some dont). Most municipalities have programs to help homeowners replace the lead service. The most prevalent is a program where the municipality pays for the lead service replacement and you slowly pay off the debt with monthly payments added to your water bill. Some municipalities have grant money so that they can replace the lead service pipe for houses with children.
Given the clipart picture of galvanized pipes it is no surprise that they did not do a stellar job covering lead abatement programs.
The main people being priced out are the middle class, not the poor.
The absurdity of it though is that you can stay in the subsidized housing program long after you switch industries and make bank.
My guess is that that is a side effect of the fact that you can stay in your subsidized apartment long after you switch industries and make bank. That does not seem that absurd to me: in general, Americans are too rootless, so a policy that incentivizes some people to continue to have the same neighbors seems worth some amount of divergence from "perfect economic justice" or whatever you want to call it.
Roots cause unemployment, since they make people less likely to move to a new job. If anything, we should be taxing the stationary rather than subsidizing them.
edit: As a simple illustration, I am a typical single, firmly middle class professional who lives in a neighborhood that I have no connection to, is nowhere near any of my family, and I know maybe one or two of my neighbors by name. If the city decided that it wanted to dump all of its garbage in the middle of my street, end rodent control, fire, and police protection in my neighborhood, and add heavy metals to the water, I would just move to a place where they weren't doing that, and leave the people who couldn't afford to to rot.
As one of the members of the top 10% in household incomes, I could conceivably keep doing that until 90% of the populace was mutating in a nuclear wasteland, and I was reduced to a shitty studio apartment for $6000/mo in the outskirts of a walled community guarded by our private paramilitary massacre-rape squad, which periodically makes incursions into the wasteland to seize kitschy furniture to sell to us on the inside.
That's true, but unemployment is not a huge problem in the US compared to problems like addiction and father-less children which are made worse by rootlessness.
In other words, the genius of America is how it removes barriers to people's becoming economically productive and following individual visions, but it is possible to take that spirit too far, particularly in domains like subsidized housing for poor people.
For most of the last 2 million years, most people were surrounded by the same people all their lives, and interactions with strangers were rare. Although it is necessary for most of us to diverge from that ancestral way of life to maintain what we have achieved as a civilization, diverging too much causes social pathologies, particularly addiction.
Someone very close to me has spent the last 18 years in a subsidized apartment building for poor people in the Bay Area. Half of this person's neighbors are the same people as when he moved in 18 years ago. There is value in that.
There is more to maintaining a healthy society that young people pulling up roots to move to the Bay Area to do fearsomely economically-productive things with computers, young people moving to Cambridge, MA, to become research scientists and young people obtaining law degrees and moving to Washington, DC, to gain enough influence to inject some wisdom and sanity into our government. In particular, there is a "social fabric" that can become diseased by too much emphasis on individual freedom and economic efficiency.
I agree with you I don't think the income gap is the cause of lower crime. Also these crime rates are dropping absolutely not per capita, right? Is there any data to show that the actual population of lower income (or even middle income) residents has dropped? All the news focuses on the variance in income distribution. NYC could be getting richer while still taking in more low income residents.
The Crime Numbers Game: Management by Manipulation
So now I don't know what to believe. My guess is that violent crime has gone down, but not as fast as the police depts have reported.
For the context of this post, however, I think it's fair to assume that murders are getting pretty accurately reported, since it's hard to downgrade or not report a murder.
 http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/414/r...  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/29/nyregion/new-york-police-d...
So I wouldn't be surprised if the NYPD is fudging the numbers somehow, though homicide is a tough thing to hide in crime stats I'd imagine...
I'll try to paraphrase a key part:
He did acknowledge that while you can use various tricks to hide crime (turn robberies into larcenies), it's very difficult to massage the murder rate numbers since a state medical examiner usually classifies the death.
So how do you bring the murder rate down? They basically instilled a curfew in poorer neighborhoods, and swept the streets every night. Baltimore cops locked up something like a 100,000 people, in a city with about 650,000 people, most never charged with anything.
Definitely check the video out.
The most extreme example I've heard is Disney World in Florida, where the body is removed from the premises (jurisdiction) before a report is filed, so they can keep the fatality counts down.
"The program relies heavily on tracking the online activities of neighborhood gangs, in effect, trying to prevent shootings before they happen."
I found that interesting. I always felt that for domestics there wasn't a lot you could do, but I guess that's not the case.
There's a very close link between the drug trade and inner-city murders.
Not sure about the exactness of these statistics, just a quick google result that seems legit.
HN really should show who's voting on posts.
London had 99 murders in 2012.
I think the context is useful in comparison.