Male friends or business contacts = handshake.
Female on first contact or in any business context = handshake.
Female acquaintance I don't know particularly well = smile and Hi before there's any ambiguity.
Female friend or reasonable acquaintance (e.g., wife's friend) = kiss on the cheek (each side with female relatives).
Are the hugs being discussed in this thread actual hugs? Or going in close as though to kiss on the cheek, but not actually touching cheeks? Or more like the way male athletes embrace each other?
If you act awkwardly or second-guess, it'll be awkward. If you end up in one of those weird situations where you half handshake and half kiss or confuse kissing sides and somehow brush lips, just laugh it off. "Well, I screwed that up!"