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You assume all users are equally valuable to Google: if there were to be a market in which Opera had significant marketshare but Google had little, then those users would be far more valuable to Google than, say, an American using Firefox.

To quote the 4Q12 report:

"Opera’s monetization strategy for its desktop browser revolves predominantly around search. Google is Opera’s global search partner and provides the majority of desktop monetization. This global partnership is supplemented by local search partnerships in certain markets, such as Russia, Japan, and China, where Opera works with Yandex, Yahoo! Japan and Baidu, respective- ly. In addition, Opera has signed up e-commerce players such as Amazon.com (USA, Germany, Japan), Booking.com (64 countries), and Ozon (Russia) to further enhance ARPU."

"Desktop Consumer" made 16MUSD in the last quarter: that's ~64MUSD annually. Of course, that won't be all the Google revenue (as there's also the default browser on other platforms), but gives a reasonable baseline figure.

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