> In the US, if you look at the last 40 years of flights, you are still more likely to die by accident than by terrorist attack.
Alright so not a complete wash, but fairly close. I might go so far as to say the difference between ~4000-5000 vs ~3000 out of ~250-300 million is statistically insignificant. I know using the total U.S. population in this instance isn't fantastic statistical analysis, but there isn't a great metric to use for a comparison between the total number of passengers on U.S. flights and the population exposed to 9/11 type terrorist fatalities. The best sources for total airline passengers include both U.S. and international to U.S. passenger total (~800 million[1]), and while it's unlikely someone in Montana is going to be killed in a 9/11 type terrorist attack it's still a possibility.
Anyway you put some effort in and clearly there is a slightly higher chance of dying from a normal plane crash than a terrorism induced one. So I'll admit you win this bet.
However if I want to argue the point (which I'm bored and do), I might say that looking at the trend in the data we might find those numbers evening out. We should expect air traffic control and safety to improve as newer technologies are implemented, people are trained better, etc. We can already see fewer deaths after the 1990's and I'd expect it to remain at that lower threshold. Now the terrorism number is harder to comment on, because presumably with all the extra safety measure another 9/11 won't happen. And even without the TSA around, it's still rather unlikely an event of that magnitude would occur again. I don't doubt the next hijacked airplanes that go close to an urban area will be intercepted and shot down. But for (my)arguments sake lets say without the extra security measures we could expect the same rate of terrorism related deaths, though perhaps not all in the same event. Given all of that, my statement about it all coming out in a wash will be true within the next couple decades :D
(Yes, I know all of that is nonsense speculative crap, but I already typed it all out so I'm just going to hit the reply button anyway.)
Dude, a comparison with plane accidents does injustice to how irrational the fear of terrorism is.
In the US alone, over 40,000 people die each year of flu. In 2011 about 32,000 people died in car accidents, which is actually good because that number is down from over 40,000 per year in the last decade (but it's probably due to the raised gas prices, it isn't like car travelling got all of a sudden safer). About 600,000 people per year die of heart disease, another 600,000 die of cancer, another 130,000 die of respiratory diseases, another 120,000 die of stroke ... many of them are old people and I don't have any stats now, but I bet the number of young people dying from such chronic diseases are on the rise and in the tens of thousands at least.
Compared to such numbers, the number of deaths related to terrorism that occurred in the first world countries in the last 50 years is completely insignificant and saying that these measures are the reason for why no more terrorist attacks happened is complete bullshit ... the only reason for why you don't see any more 9/11 scenarios is because existing terrorist networks have been drained of resources and that's it.
What TSA does to you on the other hand is just security theatre. I have a cousin that boarded on a flight from Romania to Spain with a pack of old-fashioned razor blades in his backpack. Razor blades are not allowed, mind you, but he forgot them there and they somehow passed through the airport's scanner and airport personnel is really not that careful. If the invasive procedures in the US would actually work, if they prevented anything, then where are the 9/11 events from Europe?
And if the US is a more popular target for terrorists, then maybe, just maybe, the right solution would be to improve your foreign policies and abstain from invading countries like Irak based on assumptions ;-)
Alright so not a complete wash, but fairly close. I might go so far as to say the difference between ~4000-5000 vs ~3000 out of ~250-300 million is statistically insignificant. I know using the total U.S. population in this instance isn't fantastic statistical analysis, but there isn't a great metric to use for a comparison between the total number of passengers on U.S. flights and the population exposed to 9/11 type terrorist fatalities. The best sources for total airline passengers include both U.S. and international to U.S. passenger total (~800 million[1]), and while it's unlikely someone in Montana is going to be killed in a 9/11 type terrorist attack it's still a possibility.
Anyway you put some effort in and clearly there is a slightly higher chance of dying from a normal plane crash than a terrorism induced one. So I'll admit you win this bet.
However if I want to argue the point (which I'm bored and do), I might say that looking at the trend in the data we might find those numbers evening out. We should expect air traffic control and safety to improve as newer technologies are implemented, people are trained better, etc. We can already see fewer deaths after the 1990's and I'd expect it to remain at that lower threshold. Now the terrorism number is harder to comment on, because presumably with all the extra safety measure another 9/11 won't happen. And even without the TSA around, it's still rather unlikely an event of that magnitude would occur again. I don't doubt the next hijacked airplanes that go close to an urban area will be intercepted and shot down. But for (my)arguments sake lets say without the extra security measures we could expect the same rate of terrorism related deaths, though perhaps not all in the same event. Given all of that, my statement about it all coming out in a wash will be true within the next couple decades :D
(Yes, I know all of that is nonsense speculative crap, but I already typed it all out so I'm just going to hit the reply button anyway.)
[1]http://www.travelpulse.com/dot-reports-17-percent-increase-i...