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That's probably the best strategy without putting much effort, but I bet some enterprising HN user will come up with a more complex strategy that has a higher expected value.

Just do principal component analysis on past data. That'll give the best predictors (based on linear regression) based on the past.

The hardest part of that is actually finding all the relevant historical data & getting it into a good form. Anyway, I'm not about to spend hours on picking a bracket, so I'll leave that to someone else.

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