I think the question is not really whether BB10 is good enough to succeed, but whether any single-vendor operating system can enter the market now. There are so many separate players all with their own interests that need to be served - carriers, retailers, businesses, 3rd party app developers, etc. Almost none of those parties have a true interest in blackberry succeeding (beyond the anemic reason that 'more competition is good'). A device can be the greatest thing on earth, unless it generates overwhelming consumer demand all those 3rd party interests will prevent it ever becoming a huge hit. They will tolerate it but they won't push it like they push the OSes that work in their interests - and this is why Android works - everyone up and down the chain gets a cut. Unless BB10 figures out a way for that to happen, it just doesn't matter how good it is.