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>So my bet… is that you might start to see development of a Staged combustion engine… and a switch to methane fuel

Not much of a bet – Musk talked about this two months ago.

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/hyperbola/2012/11/musk-goe...

>SpaceX's initial plan will be to build a lox/methane rocket for a future upper stage codenamed Raptor. The design of this engine would be a departure from the "open cycle" gas generator system and lox/kerosene propellants that the current Merlin 1 engine series uses. Instead, the new rocket engine would burn lox/methane in a much more efficient "staged combustion" cycle that many Russian rocket engines use.




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