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On the other hand, the double tap brings up the four most recently used applications, which, for my usage patterns at least, are more likely to be what I'm looking for than the apps on my home screen.

Most people put their most used apps in the home screen, so that's a tie.

I am not convinced most people organize their apps at all, or even know how to.

Anecdotal evidence: My father once saw me open the app switcher to force quit an app that was behaving badly. He thought it was easier, so he now checks it every single time he wants to switch an app. If it's not on the first row, he goes to the home screen and searches for it, which can take him up to a few minutes. He doesn't organise his apps in any way, and isn't interested in starting, even though he knows how to move them around.

He just likes the app switcher better.

But he never would have discovered it if not for him coincidentally paying attention when I pulled it up once.

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