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When you google "whistling past the graveyard" you get a screenshot of the stock market performance for the past month.


Y'all remember COVID?

Everything shut down for 6 months and somehow miraculously the economy just sort of chugged along without much shock until about 2 years later when all the consequences of the COVID aid/stimulus came home to roost.

That is exactly how this will play out.


This isn't a pandemic, this is an energy crisis (and everything didn't 'shut down for six months' during the pandemic anyway). The historical events you'll want to look back on are the 1973, 1979, and 2022 energy shocks.

Combine them all: this is worse.

This isn't my hot take either, it's the opinion of the International Energy Agency[1].

Even if peace breaks out right now, the world economy is going to take years to recover.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/07/oil-prices-...


This is going to work until all of the sudden it doesn't.


Which is to say, it's a speculative bubble and it will burst on its own schedule and for essentially arbitrary reasons and not due to the economic fundamentals of the industries involved.

Which... is something we all basically knew even before the Iran boondoggle. The market is as the market does.


> … for essentially arbitrary reasons and not due to the economic fundamentals …

When I think about the impact of the war on Iran, it’s pretty clearly affecting “economic fundamentals”. So what are you talking about?


They're saying that SPY is up 12% over the past month despite the Iran war. The stock market is not the economy.


The typical investor algorithm is timing the market or analysing stocks doesn't work so keep buying index funds. That can go on and on unless people run out of money to buy with.


decidedly off topic but since i've stumbled across you again, i'm still over here wondering what the hell you meant a couple months ago by arguing that doing bare syscalls on linux from a forth is an emulator.

it was quite perplexing to be called a sovcit who was imagining some software i've written just because it was rhetorically inconvenient for you that said software existed


"This time it's different"




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