I hear ya but habits are hard to break. So what does that give Facebook that it knows my habits?
I think that is what I am struggling with understanding the value of.
If I know you go by Petes Coffee every day then great I know something about you. Now how is that relevant for starbuck in any way that isn't already solved with knowing I drink coffee.
So StarBucks can try and get me to become a customer at their store. Fine but then we are back at how do they reach me?
They will have to depend on me checking my feed at some point where it's relevant or start spamming my updates tab when I walk by.
That's possible but a very very dangerous game to play IMHO.
With regards to upstream. Google as a working mobile app store :) FBs isn't even close to having solved that issue.
Edit: Saw you edited your comment so here is my edit to your edit :)
With regards to selling me things I didn't know I wanted then I sure don't hope that is their strategy. Cause that is such a big trial and error it's not even funny.
A user is currently valued at around 4USD, it needs to increase quite significantly and with a much harder job then (selling you things your didn't know you wanted).
FaceBook might be working on things we don't know about, of course they are, but OpenGraph to the best of my knowledge is not able to transcend from knowledge about habits into intent. Adding to that the problem with not having the ability to serve me with answers when I want them (especially hard on the mobile unless they want to turn it into a spam channel) then I don't see that as being a viable strategy.
Having managed huge sums in web advertising, I have few points to make. Yes intents increase relevance by a large factor for most products or services. Yes, Google currently dominates the lucrative part of the web advertising. But there is still place for ideas and disruptions. And the challenge is to solve the issues exactly what ThomPete fiercely explains.
(1) Some clients need a lot more customers than a first rank ad at Google search may offer in a given time period. Social web sites offer a huge capacity, albeit less relevant. Facebook and social web sites are challenged to innovate and increase relevancy in engagements for different actions they provide and will provide. Likes are a step in the right direction for Facebook impressions.
(2) Sometimes ads are crafted in a way to create intent, taking relevance factor into account, in case ROI calculations make sense.
(3) Search is already the most exploited channel by majority of businesses and costs are already too high especially for low-performing competitors with smaller lifetime values or low profit margins.
(4) In conversion-based ROI focused campaigns, the click prices ideally reflect the end results of everything you discussed here and much more, in an efficient ad market.
(5) Advertisers are interested in new channels. And they would be interested in targeting their FB pages likes and your FB pages likes equally.
Turn it into a "future timeline" and add goals, to-do's allow for easy calender integration.
That way they might now own actual intent, but future intent.
Going on a trip? (find cheap tickets or hotels)
Loosing weight? (here are places, products & diets)
Going to run a marathon (products, books on training, websites to join)
Planning bachelors party? (events)
Bought a ticket (add to calender and propose things to do before)
Then their data would begin to be interesting and they would own a type of intent that Google doesn't (Because they mostly lack the proper context).
Right now the calender is primarily around parties and conferences. Expand that then at least I think they would have a chance of providing relevance and would have better time finding out when to present ads.
I see a few attempts but they need to re-do it completely.