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I wonder if having such good predictions is ultimately harmful to the democratic process? If I were only voting on the presidential election, I would not have bothered going to the polls because my state was solidly on one side and the chance of my vote being pivotal was basically zero. But some of our local elections were less certain, so I went for those.

As the prediction models get better, get applied to local elections, and get more publicity, I wonder what it will do to people's incentive to vote? I'm much more likely to go out and cast my vote when the outcome is uncertain and I think I have a chance of being the pivotal vote. But if super accurate forecasts tell me my vote won't matter, then maybe I won't bother standing in line for an hour.




When the incentive of the people changes, then the outcome will change as well.




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