Hacker News new | comments | show | ask | jobs | submit login

Doesn't that mean he undercalibrated some of his predictions?

If you say 50 events should happen with a 60% probability, and they all happen, shouldn't you have upped your confidence?

That said, since most his naysayers were saying he was OVERconfident at the time, kudos to him for proving them wrong.

If the predictions are independent, then I agree with you. I can think of reason why they would not be independent (trying to account for non-random polling samples, for example).

They aren't independent. The developer of the 512 paths to the White House lamented this in getting conditional probabilities into the path choices. The simulations take into account the national popular vote polls and similar-state demographics (if one state goes one way, it's more likely that a similar one will, too).

Look at his EV histogram; 332 EVs had the highest probability of occurrence at nearly 20%. While there are other ways to get to 332, I'd imagine most of that percentage is from a map like last night. That's clearly not the partial probability of each state multiplied together.

Such extrapolations are really tough -- keep in mind, for each state we only have results with a sample size of 1.

Applications are open for YC Summer 2018

Guidelines | FAQ | Support | API | Security | Lists | Bookmarklet | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact