If you say 50 events should happen with a 60% probability, and they all happen, shouldn't you have upped your confidence?
That said, since most his naysayers were saying he was OVERconfident at the time, kudos to him for proving them wrong.
Look at his EV histogram; 332 EVs had the highest probability of occurrence at nearly 20%. While there are other ways to get to 332, I'd imagine most of that percentage is from a map like last night. That's clearly not the partial probability of each state multiplied together.