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It isn't entirely liquid. It's a pain to get money into Intrade (esp. for an American).

IEM (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html) and Intrade were up until yesterday off by 10%. Eventually things moved closer, but regulatory hurdles in actually getting money in (+ limits on funding) really hurt arbitrage opportunities.

It's really not difficult at all to get money into Intrade as an American. I had wires show up day-of if I did it early enough or next-day in every other case.

Also of note is that other betting markets were consistently higher than Intrade was for all of the last 6 months basically- there are a lot of theories as to why this may be, but it's regularly been 5%+ lower on Obama.

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