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I didn't read DHH as saying that this method guarantees success. That's an extreme claim. I think he was saying that it helps you make the attempt.

If he had initially framed his racing goal as winning Le Mans, he might have said "You know what, this Rails thing is going pretty well, why don't I just stick to that."

And if he had initially framed his goals for Rails as "creating a popular new framework", he might have said "you know what, XBOX is pretty fun", and never tried.

I've no doubt that DHH has failed at some goals using this method. The important thing is that it has helped him try enough times to rack up successes as well.

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