How big a problem is that over a multi-decade time horizon?
There is a pretty big variation in average temperatures by country [0]. Somehow People everywhere from Thailand to Greenland manage to find food. All else failing it is a possibility to trade for calories. Let alone technology improvements that might save the day by accident.
I mean, it might make places uninhabitable over the course of a few generations, but things that change so slowly are't actually much of a threat on an individual level. Worst of the worst cases people can move or not have children - the statistics suggest that is an acceptable option to a lot of people.
Right, and we know that modern human societies are really good at planning for a major disaster on a multi-decade time horizon! Look at how well we've dealt with the climate cri—oh, wait.
This won't end humanity, no. But it is likely to cause absolutely catastrophic levels of upheaval and probably billions (with a b) of deaths—from famine, disease, exposure, and war.
> Multi-decade time frame can only be thought of as catastrophic when it comes to change of this magnitude.
If someone moves from Singapore to Poland is that a catastrophe? We'd be talking a smaller temperature delta than that and this is still a theoretical risk. That isn't necessarily something that people worry about beyond saying "it is very hot" or "it is very cold". It doesn't have a lot of implications beyond needing to move crops around and changing building standards (which is achievable over long periods of time).
Now just a 10-15 degree swing isn't the end of the story because if the average temperature crosses 0 that might well be a big problem. I dunno. But it sounds solvable, these aren't particularly scary scenarios being put forward. They're more of the expensive and inconvenient variety.
There is a pretty big variation in average temperatures by country [0]. Somehow People everywhere from Thailand to Greenland manage to find food. All else failing it is a possibility to trade for calories. Let alone technology improvements that might save the day by accident.
I mean, it might make places uninhabitable over the course of a few generations, but things that change so slowly are't actually much of a threat on an individual level. Worst of the worst cases people can move or not have children - the statistics suggest that is an acceptable option to a lot of people.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_y...