We’re about to do something that may prompt Iranian missiles to target U.S. bases.
Unlike last time [1], when we had one CVN in position, one in the vicinity [2], and Israel potting their launchers, this time [3] we’re expecting some may get through.
I don’t think so. Worst case, we see the Brent-WTI spread widen. But an attack aimed at regime change carries the potential for sanctions release (even if, as in Venezuela, it’s a shuffling versus changing of guard).