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I've often made the argument that evolution can happen very quickly within a few generations and doesn't necessarily take millions of years. It's interesting to see some cases in nature where rapid changes in a predator's behavior (in this case humans) can radically alter a visible trait.





Is this really an argument or just fact? From what I understand, the modern accepted view of evolution is that it happens in a sudden step wise manner... there will be an equilibrium, where the ecosystem is fairly stable and species don't change much, and then some shock or change will happen and evolution will be rapid, over a relatively short period.

This makes sense if you think deeply about it; evolution will only happen when the 'normal' genetic expression stops surviving, otherwise the random variations will even out.


I assumed most of the actual genetic variation comes in during times of plenty, when you can have lots of offspring without worrying about them being perfectly tuned for their environment. Then a shock comes along, straining the population in some way, and whoever happens to have the right genes simply survives. The "millions of years" thing is probably for becoming a whole separate species, no? Like our ancestors turning into homo sapiens.

point being: I imagine it's sorta the opposite - evolution happens when things are stable, but the species is only shaped towards it during hard times

edit: This is reflected in the mammalian explosion - while dinosaurs ruled the earth, things were stable. asteroid comes, hard times arrive, mammals suddenly explode because they were most-ready to take over new environments thanks to their already-developed genes. Millions of years of honing all that led to H. Sapiens, the hot new species


I think the genetic variation you get when times are plenty will only hover around the mean, though, until some restraint pushes it a specific direction.

Here is a simplistic example of what I am trying to say:

Imagine you have a population of creatures, and they have some gene (or combination of genes) that controls how much cold they can tolerate. Some can tolerate very cold weather, some can barely tolerate any cold weather, and some are in the middle. They all can live happily, and mate randomly, meaning the individuals who have a high cold tolerance will (on average, since most other individuals by definition will have lower cold tolerance) mate with an individual who has lower cold tolerance. In other words, the next generation will genetically regress to the mean.

This continues on as long as all the individuals can survive at basically the same rate.

Now, imagine there is suddenly a very cold winter, and the individuals who can't tolerate cold die off. Now, there aren't any (or many) individuals with low cold tolerance for the higher tolerance individuals to mate with, meaning it won't regress back to that mean (or more accurately, it will regress back towards the new mean based on a population without the susceptible to cold individuals). Now, that genetic variation you get from generation to generation might reach new extremes that it never would have gotten to during times of plenty.


This is an incorrect conclusion:

> In other words, the next generation will genetically regress to the mean.

Mating is emphatically not like mixing paints.

> [T]he Hardy–Weinberg principle, also known as the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, model, theorem, or law, states that allele and genotype frequencies in a population will remain constant from generation to generation in the absence of other evolutionary influences.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardy%E2%80%93Weinberg_princip...


Isn't the Hardy-Weinberg principle basically regression to the mean?

The one that gets me is the Soviet experiment in domesticating foxes that worked after a few dozen generations. How many generations have humans been around with tools and technology? We've been domesticating ourselves.

I knew someone who started a farm of Spirulina (a microscopic, edible algae [cyanobacteria]) in a very different climate from where the seed culture originated. They did really poorly for the first few days, they were the wrong color and the culture wasn't growing. But eventually they adapted to the new climate and bounced back, and he was able to scale the culture up to multiple greenhouses and harvest it on an ongoing basis.

Before concluding a genetic change took place I would want to rule out alternative hypotheses. Maybe the cyanobacteria needed to do a mode switch which took time, maybe some parasite had to die, or some symbiote had to enter the culture. Yeah I'm just kinda throwing things out there, but still.

It really depends on whether you can select from variation within the existing population, where the genetic variants already exist, in which case it can happen very fast, or if you are evolving net-new functionality (opposable thumbs), which can take anywhere between millions of years and eternity.

Evolution where genetic drift results in distinct species would take generations and necessarily some time



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