I can't tell if the author is being hyperbolic or is just out of touch with reality.
"A couple nights ago, I needed to set up gitweb (a story for another post), and learned that no, nginx did not support CGI, and fcgiwrap was a little annoying to get working on OpenBSD. I whipped up a quick 80-liner in go to serve a single CGI script, and then told nginx to reverse proxy." (from previous blog entry)
Xanga, MySpace, Digg… the lists extends to infinity, and only fools could think that Twitter and Facebook, giants now, won’t be added to that list within the next five years.
I wonder if his tune will change in 5 years when Twitter and Facebook are still giants?
I'm not sure how much I'd be willing to bet that they'll still be "top dogs" in 10 years...
But asserting that "only fools could think they'll survive 5 more years" is crazy.
All of the latter three sites did multiple things wrong:
1. Fail to compete with competitors
3. Fail to build a community
Issue 1 manifested itself differently for each site. Xanga couldn't keep up with LiveJournal, which not only arrived on the scene after Xanga but out-innovated them as well. MySpace was a clusterfuck of design and functionality that got stale while Facebook was improving constantly. Digg ignored the hell out of its users and simply had nothing compelling vs Reddit.
Also, none of the sites pulled in people and kept them. The narrative for MySpace users was that people were becoming "friends" with hundreds of people who they did not know. It doesn't take a genius to realize that this essentially invalidates the whole point of a social network. Xanga never got a large audience and also suffered from the same problem of anonymous users. Digg? Digg never even really tried. Shouts were pathetic.
Facebook solved these problems. While MySpace appeared to do nothing after News Corp acquired them, Facebok kept changing the site in a very public way--and even when they got negative publicity (e.g. privacy settings), they made sure that people knew they were actively developing the site. Additionally, users on Facebook know the people in their network, and users are constantly given a reason to come back (communicate with your friends! apps! interact with companies!). Faceboook survived because they made it clear that they are the best game in town.
By his "standard" Gmail is just a fad... a 10 year fad.
And also, him using his own git server is fine and well until his server gets hacked.
Although I may agree with your comment, it sounds a little bit like an ad hominem argument. He may be wrong in other posts but can be completely right in the post we're discussing here.
Read the INSTALL file: http://repo.or.cz/w/alt-git.git?a=blob_plain;f=gitweb/INSTAL... (Requirements, "optional Perl modules")
EDIT: ate a word.