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The biggest reason founders stop working on their startups is that they get demoralized. Some people seem to have unlimited self-generated morale. These almost always succeed. At the other extreme there are people who seem to have no ability to do this; they need a boss to motivate them. In the middle there is a large band of people who have some, but not unlimited, ability to motivate themselves. These can succeed through careful morale management (and some luck).

I'd say about a quarter to a third of founders we fund have never-give-up morale. The rest are mostly in the middle group.

For the people in the middle group, I think the big danger is not knowing what to do next. That's why it's so important to launch early. Once you get something in front of users, they tell you what to do next. Not that you should do exactly what they tell you; you have to guess what they really need. But at least you start to have some data about that.




There is always the possibilty of obvserver bias though. If you able to accurately assign the never-give-ups, middle and slacker groups before the process started then the 'attitude => result' case would be pretty watertight. But if you only determine that during their startup progress then it still leaves 'result => attitude' as a possibility. Beyond the obvious metrics, the founders may have a feel for the way things are going that they can't articulate but influences their decisions.

You could argue that 100% believing 'attitude => result' is the best way to think even if it is not so true. But it seems to me that each person involved in any endevour needs maintain their own cost/benefit analyses of the situation. If the costs mount and the chances of benefit shrink they are actually doing the right thing by changing path. I can see why this might not make for good coaching advice though.


unlimited self-generated morale

I have seen people learn this talent from two sources:

1) A deep, abiding conviction that they will get what they want because they always get what they want. 2) A cheerful disregard for other's predictions of failure (or well-founded empirical observation that the project is anything but a success) -- because "you've only failed once you quit".

Type #2 are much easier to have dinner with but I've certainly seen #1 work.


#1 makes me think of a Steve Jobs or Bill Gates type. #2 is more optimistic.

But what if you started optimistic, but after years of dealing with stupid people who can't even write decent emails, your morale has fallen so low you can't stay excited?

Is there any way to recover, short of wiping your memory of the past and starting out innocent and optimistic again?

Or is that part of what makes it an exclusive trait of the successful, because it is very hard to stay optimistic over the long haul, therefore only a handful actually succeed...

Maybe the pharma industry can make "stay optimistic" drugs just for startups...


> For the people in the middle group, I think the big danger is not knowing what to do next.

That was the big reason for me. There were a bunch of contributing factors - rejected by YC 3 times, no luck with other outside investors, better opportunity came up, all other founders quit, scope of the project was much bigger than we envisioned, continuous problems simplifying the UI enough that I'd want to use it myself, and some doubt about whether current browser performance is even good enough to run the product - but I kept going through all of them until I really had no idea what to do next.

Joel's comment about it taking a long time before you can even know what knobs to tweak is right on. Early-stage products are almost completely wrong, and oftentimes they're so fractally wrong that nobody will bother telling you how to make them right. Launching helps, if you can get users. But many startups fail to get even one loyal user.


> I'd say about a quarter to a third of founders we fund have never-give-up morale. The rest are mostly in the middle group.

What's the distribution of never-give-ups among YC startups? That is, do startups with a never-give-up tend to be composed entirely of never-give-ups? What are the dynamics for startups of mixed composition?


There seems to be some tendency of never-give-ups to cluster, but it's not absolute. It's common to have one founder who's super determined and another who is less so.

If the never-give-up is sufficiently convincing, that's almost as good as having all never-give-ups. He drags the rest along. The dangerous case is the startup that has all middle of the road founders. These have to get lucky fairly quickly or they give up.


Some people seem to have unlimited self-generated morale. These almost always succeed.

This sounds like 16PF Second-Order Factor IV: Subduedness vs. Independence -- also known as "field independence".

.

From Page 119-20 of the "Handbook for the 16PF":

Both the ratings and the primaries in Q-data support this pattern, describing a person who is independent, radical, autistic, projective, and a law to himself (hence the alternative designation of this dimension as "Promethian Will").




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