For some reason, I think the Ouya's more analogous to the Boxee Box than it is to something like the XBox 360.
At ~$100, the Ouya's throwaway technology. If the platform fails, you can always root it and make it a media player. It's a low risk purchase compared to something like the Dreamcast or 3DO (remember that one?).
If they keep the games cheap, casual and social, they might actually develop enough of a base to reach sustainability. In any case, I hope they succeed, because I've bought way too many $60+ games that I only ended up playing for 5 hours.
The Dreamcast went as low as $50 and even that didn't save it, price isn't everything when it comes to consoles.
And casual gamers are already migrating away from consoles because they can play those social games on the smartphones and tablets they already own, why would they buy another console that plays the same games?