Personally I wouldn't consider it even remotely controversial that by XBox 360/PS3/Wii standards, the thing is doomed. There is an effectively zero chance that this is going to sell into the tens of millions.
But that's a completely uninteresting observation, really. Who cares? The question is, will they be successful on their own terms. That's probably "profitable" rather than "took over the video game industry". Since they're building on the Android base, their "success" or "failure" won't look like a conventional console. If the entire thing is a miserable failure, games will still be made for it, because there doesn't need to be Ouya-specific games. If the company ships hardware, then blows up, it'll probably still have games coming out for it, if for no other reason than the fact you can probably root it. Conventional consoles don't have that characteristic. It changes things a lot.
No, that new corner restaurant going in downtown probably isn't going to threaten Applebee's... but... so?
No console out there failed because it wasn't #1, it failed because it takes money to support hardware, lots of money, and the companies behind those consoles couldn't keep losing money and had to cancel it. The first Xbox lost about $4 billion, but with MSFT behind it money wasn't a problem.
Even before the Wii Nintendo had been either #2 or #3 for the past 3 generations without a problem, because it was still making more than enough money to even make their own games and design new hardware.
The new corner restaurant you mention is not going to beat Applebees, but is not going to stick around for too long if nobody goes there to eat either.
Designing your own hardware (and the entire OS on top of it) is expensive. Using off-the-shelf components and an Android base will help that immensely. If Ouya can manufacture its console for slightly less than its $100 price (assuming the kickstarter pledge level to be the price goal), it can build its profits off the game store.
If they can make it reasonably easy to Ouya-fy an existing Android game, there will be reasonable incentive to add games to the store. In my mind, this is the riskiest part. Tablet and phone games are designed around touch. Many of them won't convert to a controller well, which will limit the number of games ported and make them more dependent on made-for-Ouya titles. They'll need to be a good-sized market for that.
In Nintendo's case, you might make the argument that it's their exceptionally good first party software that allowed them to survive those years of not being number one.
First party software is also the reason (in my opinion) that the Wii was so successful. There were only a handful of titles that were actually good, with the free pack-in (Wii Sports) being arguably the killer app.
You don't get the analogy do you? see Jerf's post: the restaurant was never meant to be like applebees, but is not going to stay open if they don't make any money, same as the Ouya: odds are it wont beat the X360, but if it doesn't make enough money then how is it going to survive?
For some reason, I think the Ouya's more analogous to the Boxee Box than it is to something like the XBox 360.
At ~$100, the Ouya's throwaway technology. If the platform fails, you can always root it and make it a media player. It's a low risk purchase compared to something like the Dreamcast or 3DO (remember that one?).
If they keep the games cheap, casual and social, they might actually develop enough of a base to reach sustainability. In any case, I hope they succeed, because I've bought way too many $60+ games that I only ended up playing for 5 hours.
The Dreamcast went as low as $50 and even that didn't save it, price isn't everything when it comes to consoles.
And casual gamers are already migrating away from consoles because they can play those social games on the smartphones and tablets they already own, why would they buy another console that plays the same games?
No, but you don't get my application of it. Nice talking down to somebody while you clearly didn't consider what was said.
> odds are it wont beat the X360, but if it doesn't make enough money then how is it going to survive?
Something is broken in your logic here. Local/regional restaurants don't have to "beat" Applebee's in marketing expenditure, selection, serving sizes, or price. They don't even necessarily have entirely the same customer base. Why are you equating beating the 360 with making enough money? Their kind of operation doesn't need nearly as much money to survive.
> Did you even bother to read jerf's original post?
Yes. Your repeated key point -- wow, that's kinda vacuous and tautological. Basically you're saying, "What if you die, then what?" Well, you're dead. Duh.
Ouya the company could be run very cleverly with very low expense. It could be an unkillable cockroach in the way that a lot of bootstrapped startups are.
If run by employees who have day jobs, with open source hardware, it could have nearly zero expense for long periods of time. They could find corporate sponsors who could give them server resources for their marketplace, then it would be zero expense if they wanted.
The company could die and the Ouya community could still go on, so long as someone paid for the servers.
>The new corner restaurant you mention is not going to beat Applebees, but is not going to stick around for too long if nobody goes there to eat either.
>Since they're building on the Android base, their "success" or "failure" won't look like a conventional console. If the entire thing is a miserable failure, games will still be made for it, because there doesn't need to be Ouya-specific games. If the company ships hardware, then blows up, it'll probably still have games coming out for it, if for no other reason than the fact you can probably root it. Conventional consoles don't have that characteristic. It changes things a lot.
I and others have already ordered this that have no intention of ever using it for gaming. But then again, there's also the raspberry PI, Cubox, ODROID-X. This is easily the most consumer friendly so far.
You would still need to adapt the game for the Ouya's controller which is not that simple. BTW there are some devs still making games for "dead" consoles since the manufacturer no longer cares and they wont get sued for not having a license.
>I and others have already ordered this that have no intention of ever using it for gaming
So you are pretty much betting on it to fail? because at that price they probably depend solely on game sales for revenue, perhaps even to pay for some manufacturing costs. If you root it and use it for XBMC (to name one) Ouya wont see a penny from it, and if too many people do the same like you are implying then they'll go bankrupt.
And for the people behind the Ouya I bet going bankrupt, losing their jobs and equity is an unmitigated failure.
You do realize that you're in the minority, right? Not too many people would buy an Xbox and use it for Netflix and though Microsoft is happy to have your money, they probably were not betting the farm that many consumers would have your spending profile.
>Not too many people would buy an Xbox and use it for Netflix
I can very much tell you that's not the case.
And seriously, is everyone missing the point? This is a packaged, streaming video capable player. It will be running Android. It already has more capability than the Nexus Q and is a third of the price.
The point is that this competes with existing game consoles in more ways than just gaming. It doesn't preclude it being a success from gaming, but it means that it has a wealth of other uses.
I can't count the number of technologies that have been priced correctly to sell decently for reasons beyond their primary use. And if you think people don't buy Xboxes to play Netflix, well, I can categorically tell you that you're wrong.