For those who downvote the above, yes it presents speculation as if verified fact, but what it puts forth is actually plausible when you see how Russian military efforts tend to make use of uncertainty.
If you are going to dismiss it: dismiss it with facts and arguments. Don't just lazily downvote it.
Just to be clear, you want HN users put effort into a rebuttal of the factless speculation presented as a fact? This isn't how discussions work, this is flamebait (just like the article itself) and has no place on HN. This doesn't contribute to the discussion, and should be downvoted and flagged.
The two last statements of the post are indeed speculation. What was said up until that point can be verified. However, the speculation should be seen in light of recent history. Russia does have a history of shady maritime dealings covered by deniability. For instance you have probably heard of cables that have been mysteriously cut in the northern regions.
As for you accusing me of posting flame-bait: that's not very nice. I presume you have some way of proving your speculation?
If you are going to dismiss it: dismiss it with facts and arguments. Don't just lazily downvote it.