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[flagged] Show HN: How much is 13B euros? (howmuchis13billioneuros.com)
117 points by dndn1 21 days ago | hide | past | favorite | 95 comments
Hi,

I made this page to contextualize 13 billion euros (or 14): an amount due to Ireland in an EU Apple tax case and all over the airwaves here this week. I use some pretty silly back-of-the-envelope type calculations (the same ones also repeated a lot in Ireland this week!).

These calculations aren't especially interesting, but at least they are present: you can see them, and you can change them. If you do - change the 13 billion to 14 billion for example, related numbers will flash with updates.

It's an example using calculang[1]: a language for calculations, and an example that focuses on a close connection between numbers that we read or share and formulas/workings behind those numbers.

I plan to do a separate Show HN about calculang perhaps when I have more docs and newer playground and gallery together, but Showing this page in case it's interesting, & happy if there is feedback!

Declan

[0] https://HowMuchIs13BillionEuros.com repo: https://github.com/declann/HowMuchIs13BillionEuros.com

[1] https://calculang.dev




13 billion euros = 2 miles of subway in SF downtown [1]

[1] https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/2024-05/...


What would the cost be for the same distance in other parts of the world? Even accounting for inefficiencies, do you have any data on that? A quick search seems to put SF at the top [1].

[1] https://pedestrianobservations.com/2020/09/13/the-costs-of-s...


In Stockholm there's a current ongoing expansion of the metro system, the blue line is being expanded towards Nacka to the east and to Bakarby on the northwest while connecting to the south on an expansion. A new line (yellow) is under construction, the green line is being expanded.

In total there are 18 new stations, digging under bodies of water (and quite deep through a lot of the blue line), total cost: around 5B€.


You mean 14,881 bike sheds.


13bln$ gets you a 35 mile tunnel thru the swiss alps.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gotthard_Base_Tunnel


I’d assume that drilling a tunnel under a mountain would be significantly cheaper than digging one in a densely inhabited city (in a seismically active area).


3miles for $2bln under densely inhabitated city.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weinberg_Tunnel


A 3.23 miles long, central part of M2 metro line in Warsaw, going right under city centre, costed around $1b in 2012.


21 KM / 13 Miles cost about 2 billion euro in Europe


I need to change industry. I’m Sure I can figure out a way to do it for only 12B


... or sell it for 14. (Well, surely something like that already happened)


2 miles of proposed subway tunnel, which is why the DTX isn't getting built.


In my city 21 KM / 13 Miles cost about 2 billion euro. So SF pays about 40 times of what is probably already a jacked up price. Even with rampant corruption (lets say 50% of the 13 Billion go towards corruption) I have no idea how that is possible


San Francisco, in fact California more generally, in fact America more generally, are all hamstrung by their existing politics, bureaucracy, and lack of skill retention in government.

https://www.palladiummag.com/2022/06/09/why-america-cant-bui...

> Construction projects are undertaken within a legal and regulatory system that presents persistent, costly obstacles, while projects are being overseen by agencies who lack the resources and in some cases even the expertise to manage them.

> The NEPA/CEQA process incentivizes the public agencies to seek what is often termed a “bulletproof” environmental compliance document to head off future legal challenges. This takes time, with the average EIS taking 4.5 years to complete.

> At its peak, the agency responsible for the project, the California High-Speed Rail Authority, had fewer than 30 permanent employees managing the $105 billion project. Instead of hiring staff, the Authority relied heavily on outside consultants.

Certainly, the exact route of an electric train needs to be questioned - but it has been questioned for decades, all the while people are using planes spewing CO2 like there's no tomorrow, and all those environmentalists objecting to the train going through this parcel of land or that parcel of land are willing to keep delaying the project more and more, keep stopping there being a lower-impact way get between the two most common destinations in the state, causing more and more wildfires due to global warming. When does the madness end?

Any if the government only has a bare-bones staff, none of which are rail experts, they are going to get taken to the cleaners by everyone any anyone they consult or employ.

Also, it would help if they listened to bona-fide experts rather than pander to pork-barrel politicians:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/09/us/california-high-speed-... (https://archive.is/iXgxH)

> SNCF, the French national railroad, [...] came to California in the early 2000s with hopes of getting a contract to help develop the system. The company’s recommendations [...] were cast aside [and] the company pulled out in 2011. [...] “SNCF was very angry. They told the state they were leaving for North Africa, which was less politically dysfunctional. They went to Morocco and helped them build a rail system.” Morocco’s bullet train started service in 2018.

San Francisco can't even install a premade public toilet for less than 1.7 million dollars due to its bureaucracy and politics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noe_Valley_public_toilet

Meanwhile in New York City, they pay 900 people to do what they need 700 people for, and they don't even know why:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/nyregion/new-york-subway-... (https://archive.is/O8O4V)

> The budget showed that 900 workers were being paid to dig caverns for the platforms as part of a 3.5-mile tunnel connecting the historic station to the Long Island Rail Road. But the accountant could only identify about 700 jobs that needed to be done, according to three project supervisors. Officials could not find any reason for the other 200 people to be there. [...] The workers were laid off, Mr. Horodniceanu said, but no one figured out how long they had been employed. “All we knew is they were each being paid about $1,000 every day.”

> The estimated cost of the Long Island Rail Road project, known as “East Side Access,” has ballooned to $12 billion, or nearly $3.5 billion for each new mile of track — seven times the average elsewhere in the world. The recently completed Second Avenue subway on Manhattan’s Upper East Side and the 2015 extension of the No. 7 line to Hudson Yards also cost far above average, at $2.5 billion and $1.5 billion per mile, respectively.


This shows values per person in Ireland, but AFAIK the tax is from all European income, Apple has just channelled that through Irish subsidiary.

Isle of Man is probably even richer in per capita money they've never seen.


No, this is just about how much apple has been taxed under Irish law so all the back taxes would go to the Irish government

The source of the money originally being taxed doesn't matter


Apple, like other european giants, sends all its European business through Ireland, which is a convenient tax haven. Now, Ireland seems no longer happy being the tax haven, and Apple is forced to pay somewhat normal taxes.


Ireland is happy to be a tax haven and would like to continue being one - the magic phrase is "put on the green jersey" (and think of the nation's economic interest rather than demand fiscal transparency from Apple)

But the EU isn't happy for Ireland to be one, and has forced it to close its dodgiest schemes as it also did with the Netherlands.

Also, the EU hasn't said Ireland is a tax haven, it said it's a tax "black hole"


I'm not sure what the connection to my statement above is, wrong comment your replied to?


1 km of freeway is 10-40 million so 325-1300 km of freeway.

1 km of high speed train line is 20-60 million so 216-650 km of high speed train

Ireland's healthcare spending was 22.3 Bn in 2023, so 13 Bn covers 7 months of healthcare for the country.

I see the OP included "In € 2.24Bn National Childrens Hospitals? 5.8 National Childrens Hospitals" so they're on the right track.

We're talking about state spending here so it's pointless to compare it to the price of a tablet IMO.


> 1 km of high speed train line is 20-60 million so 216-650 km of high speed train

In America, that's how much it costs to build a 30km elevated train that goes ~45km/h (and it isn't going to be finished until ~25 years after work started):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyline_(Honolulu)#Revised_sch...

I am totally for trains, BTW, but I wish we'd hire EU and/or JP train builders to plan and build our trains.


FWIW the issue is not mostly the builders—the issue is contracting practices and program management/oversight. California HSR hired (among other contractors) Dragados, which has a long history of building huge amounts of HSR in Spain at some of the world’s lowest costs. Look how that’s gone.

Nor is the problem “bureaucracy” as a sibling comment said—actually the opposite is true, we need more “bureaucrats” with technical expertise to oversee contractors so the taxpayers don’t get our lunch eaten. We have gutted all technical expertise from government and now we often outsource the oversight to even more contractors (sometimes the same ones doing the designing and building!). Results are predictable.

We also have a huge problem with litigation and “regulation by litigation” as a replacement for actual “bureaucratic” oversight. Agencies conduct insanely expensive years-long public feedback programs and environmental studies (never mind that electric rail is innately good for the environment) for fear of lawsuits, which happen anyway and delay things even more. Instead of regulation by litigation, the government should step up and provide a clear set of achievable regulations, and if agencies/companies meet them, they can start building.

The countries that do rail infrastructure really well and really cheaply are not always the ones you expect—some are stereotyped as lazy and bureaucratic (Italy, Spain) and some are thought to be places where everything is expensive (Switzerland, Norway). We have a lot to learn, but often we tell ourselves that it just can’t apply to us because we’re so exceptional.

For details on the specific problems and solutions: https://transitcosts.com/


I don't think its the builders. I think its the red tape and bureaucracy. Every agency wants to opine and get their pound of flesh. Also its nearly impossible to even get cleared to bid on these contracts.


Sadly we got our problems, mainly the fact that there isn't a unified ticketing system.

But as long as you travel insode only one country it's great.

In Italy trains work well and i heard that actually Trenitalia is so good that it's expanding to other countries

Edit:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferrovie_dello_Stato_Italian...

Seems that trenitalia actually controls A LOT of companies across Europe, super interesting.


They have tried that several times in Texas but it always gets killed by special interests, namely the air carriers


> I am totally for trains, BTW, but I wish we'd hire EU and/or JP train builders to plan and build our trains.

Why? They wouldn't end up being any cheaper or able to make the trains run on time.


When CA HSR was being proposed, there was some interest from SNCF of France and JR of Japan, but they specifically called out that the chosen route was very risky and hard to build.

Now it's ballooned from $33B to $100B+.


I think the point of the tablet was to compare it to giving pupils school materials.


Since this seems to be a dual purpose post with the secondary goal of promoting calculang, I'll say I do not understand the value prop of calculang at all. It doesn't look like a library or language or anything, it just looks like plain javascript.


Thanks for checking it out and for the comment! This surprised me, but you are right.

The only thing I can point to referring to this example only is that there is a lot of Javascript in the page, but the calculations are (effectively Javascript also but:) described separately, and this is still useful I'll argue -

Separation of concerns means we can easily first of all point to calculation logic, connect it to numbers where they are used, give some structure to it, build tools to generally interact with that structure (much simpler than with Javascript). calculang code is pure and has no side-effects (*supposed to), which means tools can safely re-run code and expect predictable output. I use a tool taking advantage of some of this in [1] a video exploring a calculang model for a raycasting algorithm in order to understand it and fix a thing. So, I said a lot of buzzwords but I do use these properties to experiment with different DX that is far more challenging to develop for Javascript or a programming language generally.

The calculations in How much is 13 Bn euros are almost trivial - I normally don't put in these types of hardcodes for example - and it does happen to be valid Javascript here. An example to see some technical properties of calculang itself is this (also simple) one: https://new-layout-2--finding-calculang-foc.netlify.app/shop

There are a few tabs in the top left. The first (default) tab is showing calculang code: a few formulas and a few inputs (inputs are denoted by a convention). All are implemented like functions, and there are a lot of function calls - but those brackets have nothing in them. This is because calculang tracks how inputs are used and populates brackets for you - something I call input inference (or input threading). In the second tab you'll see the calculang output.

So it looks like calculang helps you to write pure-functional calculation code in a concise way; by threading inputs through all the function calls automatically.

calculang also supports modularity and effectively lets you re-use one calculation and "overriding" some component calculation/s. In other words: calculang formulas are flexible. And this is the real motivation for calculang taking care of all that input threading: flexibility means it should be done differently in different contexts (even sensible within the same model - for example - "I want this calc with this change, I want the same calc but with this other change or no change, and I want the difference between the two").

The compiler takes care of input threading through some pretty simple graph logic - everything related to compilation is <1k lines in total. Effective modularity, flexibility, and re-use of course is useful for maintainability.

A recycling logo in the calculang.dev examples [2] indicates models which use modularity in some form.

Sorry for the long post. That really is about all the technical details I can mention - but I think separation of concerns takes it very far also - in terms of its goals (that are stated on top of calculang.dev).

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKVXRACCnqU

[2] https://calculang.dev/#examples


With all due respect, if you are making calculang with the goal of creating a tool for others to use, you need to work on a concise and clear description of what calculang is and why it exists. I'm sorry but I still have no idea what it even fits into in the broadest categories of language, library, or conceptual framework. No disrespect intended, just sharing feedback if you're hoping to grow this product.


I do need to work on this - thanks for the feedback.


It's also the amount that Tim Cook keeps in cash in his wallet for paying small fines and such.

Being less facetious - Apple has $166Billion in cash so 13 billion euro is a good enough chunk of it - 10%.

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-compa...


13B euro is 14.31B usd, so that’s 8.62%

(still a good chunk)


If Apple got a 13 billion dollar fine every single month, it would take 22 years for it to exhaust their networth.


Market cap is not the same as net worth. Apple has around $166B in cash or cash-like reserves, so they'd run out much faster than that.


Is that more than their monthly EU revenue? I guess they would just decide not to do business in the EU in that case.


This is a pointless statistic. I assume you mean market capitalization by net worth and if they were fined that much every month their market cap would immediately drop by 90% because their costs in paying fines would take away 90% of their profit.


So you are saying they could pay a 13B dollar fine every month and still make ~1B dollar profit?


Apple makes 5-7B/ mo in net revenue (roughly close enough to profit for this purpose), so no.


Instead of asking a question why don't you just make your point?


I think the point is in the answer to the question? If the answer isn’t correct there is no point.


I want them to make the point explicit so I can explain why they are a greedy leech. If they keep the point ambiguous by asking a rhetorical question they can move goalposts.


Exactly. What a doodoo statement


Most statistics are pointless. This is just a representation of what 13 billion is.


Why parrot things that are pointless? Market cap is not "net worth", so what was the point of the comparison?


The framing is kinda confusing in some questions. For example, "In € 2,000 one-off gifts? Answer: 1.3x € 2,000 gifts for each person."

But clearly that can't be per person globally. I had to read the code to see it was specifically about Ireland. Actually, they're all about Ireland.

I know the first question mentions Ireland but it's not obvious that all the questions are also scoped to Ireland.


I felt like this was kind of obvious? If not that it was for Ireland, then at least that it was not for the entire world.


It's barely enough to subsidise a war for one year...


I'm not sure, that sounds like a pretty cheap war to me then.

It's barely enough to pay for 5 days of the US defense budget, and they're not even fighting a war at the moment.


you're right... but also I was being cynical


A metro system or two: https://www.thejournal.ie/metrolink-expensive-rail-undergrou...


It's so big that you'll need a 64-bit variable to store that value.


I could do it with less than 34 bits.


If you can design a new encoding scheme, zero bits is enough.


TypeError: Cannot read properties of undefined (reading 'values')

RuntimeError: Cannot read properties of undefined (reading 'values')

Not working right for me


I use reactive Javascript which shows errors until a few pieces click together (best that I can understand it atm).

So it's normal to have a string of errors and then everything works, but it should work in much less than 2s. I guess that can depend on a few things!

Please let me know if waiting a bit still fails!


Not a JS dev, but I think proper reactive JS shouldn't do that.


To get my editor component and compiler interacting with that reactive system it got a little messy, and I'll review and hopefully fix it before I push this to a wider calculang playground. Hopefully it's my own bugs that I can fix anyways.


The fact that everything is scoped for Ireland needs to be more clear, by stating this very fact at the very top or as part of the title.


A screenful of JavaScript errors? I guess that means 13B EUR is does not compute much.


This is a curious case of bait and switch. Ireland attracts Apple through low taxes. The EU rules this is an illegal subsidy for Apple by Ireland, harming other member states. So why should Ireland be entitled to the money, but not those member states?


Ireland doesn't even want the 13 billion, because if it collects, it knows Apple will be looking for a new HQ and all the Apple jobs and payroll taxes and secondary economic activity will leave Ireland.

Really, Ireland helped US companies evade tax, but the EU is just codifying this unfair advantage of Irish tax law as "state aid". The EU made Ireland close the "Double Irish" arrangement in 2015 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_Irish_arrangement), this 13 billion is how much tax Apple avoided paying Ireland by using that structure, compared to having a normal company structure (sales in other EU member states -> revenue banked in Ireland)

The EU didn't outlaw software/IP licensing! Until it does, Apple can still say that Apple Ireland licenses e.g. Final Cut Pro to Apple Germany for 298 EUR, and Apple Germany sells a German customer a copy for 299 EUR, banking 1 EUR revenue in Germany and 298 EUR revenue in Ireland. That's why other member states don't get the money.


Would Ireland consider leaving the EU?


No. Support for remaining in the EU is incredibly high.

In fact, these economic arrangements with MNC’s are rather unpopular - especially given native businesses don’t get the same tax breaks.


Why would they consider that? If they do, Apple and all those companies would also leave since Ireland's EU membership is what kept them there. Withtout that their HQs there become worthless.


It might aford a rail system connecting the major Dublin airport. I have my complaints about how Ireland spends it's money but all in all, it's less corrupt than other places I've lived in.


Why are all the variables functions? They're just numbers. There's no need at all for them to be functions that just return numbers.


In this example it might not be so practical, but in calculang everything is a function including constants.

This is because of an emphasis on flexibility. They're a constant here but in another calculang model I can call calculations from this same code while asking for specific pieces of the calculation to be different.

e.g. if I have a population growth assumption then in an exercise I can get all these numbers allowing for population growth - without myself touching these formulas. Population then depends on time and must be a function.

On calculang.dev I say that formulas (functions) are the building blocks of calculations, and they're the mechanism for flexibility (also transparency).


The fact that its only 25K homes is crazy


43,333 homes using 13Bn and 300k cost; I guess you changed one of these or did something else ?


Ugh, the cost of that bike shed hurts. It's more money than my bike enthusiast father has ever had in net total assets (not accounting for pension, but yes accounting for house) + my entire net worth as an adult man in my thirties, and that's just a one for one number comparison without accounting for exchange. Hopefully it'll do it's job well and last forever, but it's just another reminder that whichever number I come up with to charge someone for services, it's not enough until it feels absurd, otherwise it'll get spent on some other totally asinine thing (not that a bike shelter is asinine, but the cost compared to the result does seem to be).


Wow. Bike shedding really is expensive.


relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/980/


I love this one:

https://mkorostoff.github.io/1-pixel-wealth/


Unbelievable, my finger is tired from scrolling I would have to send it to my laptop to continue, how come people are not revolting against that!??


Wow... "Every pixel you scroll is $5 million"


I was hoping for “a million vs. a billion” but this one is definitely more relevant.


13,000 tomahawk missiles!


Apple isn’t paying that


Then they're looking at frozen accounts and assets, just like Russia.


€ 336k for a BIKE SHED? And it’s really just a nice semi-covered bike rack (not a shed as Americans would think of it)?

Holy crap…


Government and corruption in action


>it’s a lot of money

You think that’s a lot of money? Pfft, war on Iraq did cost more than $3 trillion.

https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/true-cost-iraq-war-...


0,001% of all billionaires net worth.


I’d say more than €5.


Few of you attempt to contextualize the vast sum of 13 billion euros and others fixate on its magnitude without delving into the nuanced policy implications. This oversimplification, coupled with a lack of comprehensive understanding of EU dynamics and international tax law, leads to mischaracterizations of the situation as a "fine" rather than a ruling on back taxes. Also libertarian mindset manifests in various ways: skepticism towards government intervention and international governance, emphasis on corporate rights and freedom, and a tendency to reduce complex systems to simple narratives of overreach versus liberty. Notably absent from much of the discussion here are the wider ramifications for global tax policy, the delicate balance between attracting foreign investment and maintaining fair tax practices, and the potential impact on wealth inequality. The commentary also reveals a curious dynamic where Ireland, the supposed beneficiary, is reluctant to collect these taxes due to fears of losing foreign investment, a nuance lost on many commenters. Ultimately, while the discussion generates interesting points about the scale of corporate wealth and taxation, it often lacks the depth necessary to grapple with the complex legal, economic, and ethical issues at the heart of this case, highlighting the challenges of fostering informed public discourse on intricate matters of international finance and governance.


[flagged]


Good, give them more.


What’s the point of this?


> Hi, I made this page to contextualize 13 billion euros (or 14): an amount due to Ireland in an EU Apple tax case and all over the airwaves here this week. I use some pretty silly back-of-the-envelope type calculations

It’s in the post. You asked a shitty question. Don’t be rude.


[flagged]


A lot of folks aren't great with numeracy, so I think it's good to use examples to help people understand how much tax Apple didn't have to pay that they themselves would have had to pay if they earned as much as Apple did.


Yes, explaining 13bn in terms of how many Children's Hospitals or Special Needs Assistants or Tablets per school child is very helpful in understanding how much money were taking about, and has no political agenda whatsoever.

/sarcasm


Takes one to know one?

The point is to help folks understand how significant this fine is. Take from it what you will.


I don't think this is correct. It's helping understand how large that much money is. It's a hard one to get your head around.


The obsession with numbers and money, the sure sign of evil. Everyone, quick, drink holy wasser, until it's too late :D.




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