As a technologist who evaluates the evolution and viability of fundamental new tech on long time scales, the "reality gap" of most tech reporting on autonomous vehicles has been consistently terrible. Initially, expectations of near-term "full self-driving" were wildly over-optimistic. More recently, the tone has been more like "shit don't work." Yet neither extreme accurately conveys reality.
On one hand, the mythical "drive anything, anywhere, anytime" wonder-system a typical consumer would want, could use and could afford is likely still more than 10 years away. On the other hand, there are a ton of narrower use cases the tech is now finally good enough to solve at viable scale and cost - starting as early as next year. Unfortunately, we're now over-reacting into the typical 'trough of disillusionment' of the tech hype cycle just as things are finally ready to start getting really interesting.
On one hand, the mythical "drive anything, anywhere, anytime" wonder-system a typical consumer would want, could use and could afford is likely still more than 10 years away. On the other hand, there are a ton of narrower use cases the tech is now finally good enough to solve at viable scale and cost - starting as early as next year. Unfortunately, we're now over-reacting into the typical 'trough of disillusionment' of the tech hype cycle just as things are finally ready to start getting really interesting.